I dumped almost all my precious metals puts/shorts yesterday based on the $XAU hitting both its Fib fan and its Fib resistance. This is another beautiful example of technical analysis in action. I've tinted the convergence area. So what to do now? I'm not sure, but I might consider getting back in on the short side if this retraces to $128.70. As ridiculous as the bid/ask spread is on the XAU, it turned out to be a fantastic trade.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Easing Back on OIH
I have taken half the OIH trade (calls – bullish position) off the table. It was a very good trade, and it may have more to run, but today's nearly 6% pop is bumping up against a possible resistance zone, so I'd rather bank some profit now.
Going Long the NASDAQ
I am returning to my original hypothesis that we're going to see a strong rally which, in the end, will represent a superb shorting opportunity. Looking at both the Fibonacci fans and retracements, this seems like a good entry point for a bullish play on the $NDX.
Given that, I have gone "all in" on my IRA account into QLD, which I think could easily move 25% higher from current levels.
Obviously I closed out my Russell put position first thing this morning. I imagine the House will pass the bill, the markets will finally surge, the VIX will get more reasonable, and we can be bears again. Until then, I'm going to wait.
Vanishing Jobs
The jobs report just came out from the Labor department, and the figures are somewhat worse than the consensus predicted. The losses are the greatest seen in over five years (since March 2003). Looking at my streaming charts, the immediate reaction was (a) the EUR/USD taking a quick tumble {that is, a stronger dollar}; (b) the equities as measured by @ES0812 pushing a little higher, from about no change to positive 7 points as of this writing (a little less than an hour before the opening bell).
My core wish is that this house vote gets done before the market closes today. I think we're all sick of waiting. Of course, there's no guarantee at all this will happen. But this entire Congressional thing is like a psychosis on the entire market, worse than all the FOMC announcements and earnings seasons combined.
I see the S&P is now higher by low double digits now. It's going to be a weird day, I can tell.
Ya. Sure. You Betcha.
It's late and I need to get a few hours of sleep. Tomorrow (Friday) is obviously going to be huge in terms of anxiety and importance. I have lost track of how many weeks we've all been on this ridiculous roller coaster, but it almost makes me miss the bad old days when we have to scratch around for a decent opportunity or two in the midst of bull-land. In any case, I'll do a post in the morning after the jobs number comes out. Good night.
