Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

No Man’s Land

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For any of you who thought every single trading day of my life was flawless and superb, let me say, today has stunk so far. I lost a fair chunk of cash on a long SSO position. I got into my index puts way too late. And I've gotten knocked out of about a dozen long positions. Yuck!

Bear though I am, even I am amazed how we keep going lower. Even some of the most bearish of the bearish folks that I read have been in agreement that we're at/near a bottom, but it seems that a floor simply cannot be found.

Looking at the SPY with Fibonacci extensions below, you can see we're in a bit of a no man's land.

If we get a real washout, there's still a long way to go. A different view, this time with the $SPX directly, suggests a bounce at about 941.43.

A Rally? Really??

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What I'm expecting for a while (with "a while" being wholly unknown, although I hope it's not "quite a few minutes!") is:

  • A calming market
  • A dwindling VIX
  • The elimination of a need to be armed for battle from open to close

The perfect storm for bears is coming later. It might take a few months to get here. For the immediate moment, I'm going to be doing something very simple: buying SSO to take advantage of the ride up. It's clean, there's no reason to fuss about the volatility premium, and it's super-liquid.

The buying public has to get some modicum of trust and comfort back. It's going to take a little while for these wounds to heal.