This will be:
- The last politically-oriented post I do for a very long time (if ever);
- The first time (and certainly one of the very rare times) I have disabled comments on a post, since I'd rather not have fist-fights break out……… {Update: since you guys are simply commenting on the prior post, I give up – comments enabled now…………)
As we all know, this blog has grown into a vibrant community, fertile with trading ideas, particularly those with a bearish orientation. I have been surprised and delighted at the growth of the blog, and I intend to keep its orientation (ursine trading) steady until such time, years from now, as things seem genuinely bullish.
But I do want to say something about the terribly important election that is coming tomorrow. And I don't say this because I'm going to change any minds (or more than one or two), because I won't; and I don't say this because it'll have any effect on the election, because I am confident Obama will not only win, but will win in a landslide. But I want to go on record with my point of view just so you can understand your host a little better, and because I do think the political environment now and in the years to come will have a gigantic bearing on our financial markets.
As I'm sure you've deduced from my prior posts, I have voted for Barack Obama. At the risk of sounding apologetic, but really more for the purpose of giving my vote more gravitas, I will repeat:
- I grew up in a Republican household;
- I have always been fervently pro-business, anti-union, anti-taxes (and was wildly pro-Reagan during my younger years);
- I have long found traditional Democratic causes (labor unions, higher taxes, greater government bureaucracy, etc.) to be both corrupt and distasteful.
Now, I have read many people declare their support for McCain based on the traditional Republican values of lower taxes, less government, and more personal freedom.
That political party simply doesn't exist anymore. George Bush killed it. Even though George Bush is a registered Republican, there's never been so much overspending, intrusion into personal lives, and other supposedly "anti-Republican" decisions made by a U.S. President.
The United States is very, very sick. And it's going to get sicker. The Medicare/Social Security crisis is going to make this housing debacle look like child's play. I wonder if the United States is even going to survive the next ten years. So the idea of voting for someone based on the idea he will keep taxes low (or lower them further) is completely absurd. Anyone who believes that is wildly deluded, if not outright stupid.
Let me also confess that I have a bigotry, and it enters into my decision. Yes, I am a bigot. An I.Q. bigot. I have a real fondness for smart people. That's why I chose the friends that I have. That's why I hired particular people at Prophet. And that's one of the reasons I married the woman that I married. Because. I. Love. Smart. People.
Barack Obama is wicked smart. We need smart. I don't know much about Joe Biden, but he certainly seems sharp too. John McCain is no dummy, but I think Barack's got him beat, and God knows that dim-witted bubblehead Sarah Palin has "C-student" written all over her. So part of my reason for my vote is based on sheer brainpower. I think the selection is offensive to America, and in retrospect, people will agree that McCain shot himself in the foot with that misguided choice.
But the principal reason I am voting this way is because I believe certain times call for certain leadership. Do I want the higher taxes that Obama is certainly going to bring? Of course not. Will I agree with the left-of-center choices he makes to all his Cabinet posts? I doubt it. But this country is in such a state that I believe everyone, regardless of political affiliation (both real or imagined) needs to line up behind someone whose intelligence, energy, charisma, and principles will give the United States a fighting chance. And, let's face it, higher taxes are a foregone conclusion at this point, no matter who gets elected. Obama is simply being honest about having to raise them.
I've got something to say about the man's skin color too, and I hope this doesn't come off as either offensive or patronizing. I grew up in the deep south. I was never taught racism, but I was witness to some of it. To me, Obama's skin color shouldn't be a reason to vote for or against him, but I will say this – – for this country to elect a black man as President is good for the United States. Do you really want a meaningful part of your population to feel disenfranchised? Wouldn't you prefer, as a nation, for us to make the loudest statement we can about how every person in this country can rise to this office? Don't you think the pride of the black people in America will swell up, and we can help erase some of our ugly past? Having the many constituencies that make up this country feel truly a part of America will make the nation as a whole stronger and prouder.
It's the idea of America that I love, and it's the real America I want to see come back. It will take many years, and I'm not sure we'll survive as a nation or not. But, at this point in history, given the choice of the two candidates, I believe the better choice is Barack Obama. Our recovery is going to be painful, and a lot of people aren't going to like the hard choices this man is going to have to make. But I think as a nation we are about to make history, and I think that, years from now, we may look back on this time as a pivotal and positive point of what the United States decided to do to save itself.
