Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Huge Position in Uncertainty

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As much as I'd love to hold aloft a glowing orb to guide the way for all of us, I have no such orb. Especially now. Although at least I feel I'm in good company. All the blogs and newsletters that I enjoy reading are as conflicted as I am. The basic agreement is that "wow, there's going to big a big move, but we have no idea which direction."

I guess this is one of those times that "when in doubt, get out." Instead of entering any big positions, I'll be tightening up stops and getting out of ones I feel are unsafe or have reached their potential. My Weird-O-Meter is pegged right now, and it makes me terribly nervous.

Blown Jobs

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I was bracing myself for a jobs report that was anything-less-than-horrible to goose the market higher, since the market definitely had the potential to rally off these levels. It turns out that "horrible" was in fact what came through, with an unemployment rate higher than the peak seen after the last recession.

We can look at charts all day long, but the key things to always keep in the back of your head are:

  • The economy is failing fast
  • People are losing their jobs, and many more will lose them
  • Consumer confidence is at levels never seen before, which means no one is going to be buying jack squat
  • This cycle of lost confidence will feed on itself.

Ah, and I see the ES just went into the red for the first time since yesterday. Should be yet another interesting day.

The Crawl

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Good morning, everyone. As I sit here, there's a half hour to go until the release of the jobs report. I noticed something interested about the ES minute bar chart. First, I've had a longish trendline drawn on this for a while now (the descending line you see below, which was broken to the upside about a week ago).

 What's especially interesting to me is how prices have been crawling along the top of this line, even when viewed up close.

This at least indicates to me the value and importance of this line. In spite of having a mix of long and short positions, I'm tilted pretty heavily toward the bearish side, so I'm hoping we see a push down, but to be honest, this line seems to imply some resolution on the part of the market to stay on the bullish side of this line and try to push higher. We shall see soon!