Now that I've managed to push my IQ back into the triple digits and am not buying stuff anymore, I'm pleased to see the failure of today's ES to launch off its inverted head and shoulders. This is a good sign for the bears. I'm short 30 ES at 766.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The Slippery Slope
My suggestion on buying DIG yesterday was ill-conceived, obviously. I lost on that one, and in a market like this, bullish notions should be backed by staggering amounts of technical evidence.
Looking at OIH (on which I am still the unhappy owner of some call options I bought yesterday), my view is actually pretty dark on energy. I do think OIH will move higher, but not much. I think it'll fight its way back to about 78.
The bigger picture on OIH shows why; there is tremendous downward momentum and overhead supply.
It is true that the price of crude oil is now so low that it is no longer economically feasible for many countries to even pull it out of the ground. Thus, supply will fall and prices will stabilize. But these shifts move slowly, and I was a fool to think buying OIH (or DIG) was a good idea at this stage. I'm sorry.
Crazy Not to Short
There are still good shorts out there. I saw this one this morning.
Extreme Left
A friend of mine sent me this graphic I hadn't seen before; it shows the annual performance of each year of the stock market. (I've had to shrink the graphic, so the years are a little tough to read, but you'll get the idea). On the extreme right are the handful of blowout bullish years, such as 1954, in which the S&P returned from 50-60%. In the middle are the vast majority of years, which yield 0-10%. And on the extreme left, there was only one year – 1931 – that had the distinction of producing a negative 40% to negative 50% return. Until now. Thus far, 2008 is now joining its buddy 1931………..amazing.
Old Faithful
I've mentioned on occasion that I manage three different accounts. Some people have asked about this, wondering perhaps if there was some kind of magic or clever rationale. There isn't; the reason is much more boring than that. One account is an IRA; another is my personal account; and other is a family account (which is the largest). All of them have their own "personalities", but the whole of them together comprise my trading universe.
I will comment specifically on the first account, which has all of one position. That's right, one; this from the same guy who sometimes has hundreds of different stocks. The IRA is, by design, very clumsy and awkward to trade, thus is doesn't lend itself to anything except buy-and-hold.
This actually has worked out quite well, because my "one decision" stock, SDP, just sits there and grows. I intend to hold on to this position for a long, long time, because I think the broad trend of the Utilities will be down for a long, long time. Let's take a look at $DJUSUT, which is the basis for SDP.
And here's SDP itself, which as you can see has all the markings of a very bullish security.
With all the tumult and vacillations in my other accounts, it's nice to have something which is relatively steady. I think this is going to be a dynamite hold that requires no maintenance, care, or feeding on my part.
