Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Desiderata

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When I was a young boy, I often read the famous Desiderata text that my parents had framed in the room my two older brothers shared. It was on a faux parchment, glued onto a darkly-stained board. To a child's eyes, it seemed like the real thing, as if it were hundreds of years old (even though it had only been penned fifty years beforehand).

It may seem a trifle hackneyed, but I still like it. Through such a year as this, I'm sure – – much like evangelical churches – – it has enjoyed a bit of a revival.

Go placidly amid the noise and the haste,

and remember what peace there may be in silence.

As far as possible, without surrender,

be on good terms with all persons.
Speak your truth quietly and
clearly;
and listen to others,
even to the dull and the ignorant;

they too have their story.
Avoid loud and aggressive persons;
they
are vexatious to the spirit.

If you compare yourself with others,

you may become vain or bitter,
for always there will be greater and
lesser persons than yourself.
Enjoy your achievements as well as your
plans.
Keep interested in your own career, however humble;
it is a real
possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business
affairs,
for the world is full of trickery.
But let this not blind you
to what virtue there is;
many persons strive for high ideals,
and
everywhere life is full of heroism.
Be yourself. Especially do not feign
affection.
Neither be cynical about love,
for in the face of all
aridity and disenchantment,
it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years,

gracefully surrendering the things of youth.
Nurture strength of spirit
to shield you in sudden misfortune.
But do not distress yourself with dark
imaginings.
Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline,
be
gentle with yourself.
You are a child of the universe
no less than the
trees and the stars;
you have a right to be here.
And whether or not it
is clear to you,
no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Therefore be at peace with God,

whatever you conceive Him to be.
And whatever your labors and
aspirations,
in the noisy confusion of life,
keep peace in your soul.

With all its sham, drudgery, and broken
dreams,
it is still a beautiful world.
Be cheerful. Strive to be
happy.

The Dollar

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The ES got close enough to 2sweeties' 865 level (the low so far, 867.25) that I took profits on my ES short (please note I don't tend to stick to the "get stopped out only" on ES trades, since they are so highly leveraged). I am flat the indexes right now.

I've been mentioning the breakout in EUR/USD ad nauseum lately, and this chart of the US Dollar Index shows the same concept (only in the other direction). This is a very clean H&S pattern, which points to higher oil, higher gold – at least for the short-term.

I have been updating stops and haven't had time to go through charts for new ideas, but I will……….

The Morning ES

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I sold short 10 ES on Sunday afternoon at 886, since in my view the overhead supply between about 890 and 915 was so formidable.

Looking at many charts, and reading many different trading blogs, I can still see it's a complete mess out there with respect to reading the tea leaves of the market, particularly with the malaise of year-end floating about. I find Evil Speculator's latest wave count intriguing, although molecool makes clear that it is subject to revision based on what happens today.

Doubt

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For every 100 friendly, grateful, nice emails I get, I get 1 stinker (it's probably a lot less than that, but you get the point). I received this one on Saturday morning; I've highlighted the parts in particular I want to address………

Hi Tim,

I just want to say I enjoy reading your blog and the insightful charts you provide. I think you're make a great teacher/educator. I come to your blog to be educated and to extract knowledge/insights.

But I am skeptical of your claims to be consistently profitable. I suspect you talk a lot of bullshxt when you claim to have gone long and short this and that at the drop of a dime. With the current volatility and the tight stops you put in place you would have been whip lashed/stop out in many cases. In bear markets like this special one, everybody gets taken to the cleaners. I believe you may have made a bit at the start of the bear market and rode perhaps 60% at most of the downtrend and living off those earlier gains. I suspect those profits are slowly been chipped away though. I do not know of any day trader that can make money in this market trading index futures (mini S&P), options, currencies (Euro) etc. If you gained in one you would have lost on the other. I am 95% certain that is the case with you. Furthermore, people such as yourself who are generous in sharing information/charts (for which I am very very grateful)  normally don't have money on the line. Who in their right mind gives away money making trade secrets? I believe you have a lot of mental/fantasy  positions, trades you would love to do but never carry out. You may even be one of those bystanders who take out the odd trade now and then but who lose more than they win. I know for a fact that people that write books on how to invest are not usually able to make the leap in practice.  

For those truly individual profitable day traders, and treat it as a business (their livelihood),they are focused like a laser and concentrate on one area of specialty (e.g. index futures) whereas you claim to be a jack of all trades (options, futures, currencies) and even have time for a blog. Tim, no-one is as good they claim to be. Just ask Bernie M.

regards
Jimmy Linte

I've said it before, but let me be clear:

  • I have no vested interest in dazzling or fooling anyone with an artificial record. I could say I make 10,000% a year, and if everyone here believed me, it wouldn't do me any good. I don't run a hedge fund. I don't sell a newsletter. The blog itself is free to anyone with a web browser. If I sell one of my books, it yields about $3 for me, which will get me a cup of coffee. In an entire year, I will make a few thousand bucks off the ads on the site, which is a dollar figure I make or lose every morning within the first 2 seconds of the trading day.
  • The notion that I never 'fess up to losses is patently absurd. Just a few days ago I mentioned how I blew $10k on FXP. Indeed, part of the reason I use this forum is as a public flagellation space, so I can castigate myself for screwing up trades or taking profits too early. Regular readers are acutely aware how hard I am on myself.
  • Although I don't really care if Jimmy (or anyone) believes it or not, I do in fact trade quite actively, with honest-to-goodness money (in the seven figures), and my performance is 2008 puts me in very rare company. It's just one year, I realize, but I assure you, this has been a remarkably good year. My trades were real and not "fantasy."

I immediately wrote back to Mr. Linte, asking him what precisely it is he wanted from me…………a confession? He didn't bother with a response. But, for anyone else who might harbor similar nagging doubts, I thought I'd mention – – yet again – – that I am very real, as are my trades, and I try to level with my beloved readers on both the wins and losses that transpire with my efforts.