Today went very well. I was somewhat concerned before the market
opened, because the buying public seems to have swallowed the notion
"oil down=equities up" hook, line, and sinker. The Dow blasted higher,
soaring over 200 points as oil and gold got pummeled.
It
didn't take me long to realize I was going to be OK. About an hour into
the trading day, the Dow was still up 170 points, but my portfolio was
up handsomely. It is a very, very good sign for a bear to have a lot of
green in the portfolio in the face of 170 points up on the Dow. So,
naturally, when the Dow actually lost every single point of its gain
and went into the red. my portfolio went from green to mega-green. It
was an awesome day.
I've been talking about the Euro's fall for weeks now. Maybe we're in for a pause at around the 1.44 level.
The
broken trendline, first pierced in mid-August, is proving to be
critically important. As good as today was, things are going to get
sensational until we can break this series of higher lows.
The "watched pot" of $UTIL isn't boiling yet, but it's getting there. I love this chart!
Check
out the honkin' big bearish engulfing pattern on the $COMPQ. It is
noteworthy that there is no similar series of higher lows here – – –
today marked the lowest price in weeks.
As
for how much farther gold will keep falling, that's hard for me to say;
looking at $XAU, it was almost too easy calling for a plunge when it
was at $155 last week. Judging by these lines, another $10 down looks
very likely.
OIH is somewhat easier to judge. I am going to hold on to these puts until about the $165 level.
I offer the following charts without additional commentary; they represent to me my favorites among my holdings right now.
The
only really big economic news this week is going to be Friday morning's
employment report. For me, the good news is that the plunge in oil
prices excited the bulls, but it let them down. This is the kind of
market we need in order to push lower – – – providing, literally, a
slope of hope.
