The opening setup this morning was complex so I tweeted the premarket video I recorded this morning for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net on my main twitter this morning at the open. If you missed that you can see that here.
In summary there is a chance today for bulls to shut down the bear scenario here off yesterday’s bounce at the 3sd daily lower band. Bulls would need to break back over the daily middle band, currently at 2154, and a decent match with the ES monthly pivot at 2146. Obviously they would also in that event need to avoid a reversal candle on Monday cancelling the bull breakout.
That prospect is receding a bit now, as the best shot for bulls at doing that today was the possible trend day that was developing, but that’s looking unlikely now. I’m still very much leaning short, but there is a bull scenario here and we need to be aware of it. ES Dec 60min chart:
NQ Dec 60min chart:
I flagged this falling channel on TF as a worrying development for bears last night (for subscribers). That remains a threateningly bullish development until this channel breaks down …. if it does. TF Dec 60min chart:
I’m not going to be trading much today as I have to go and take some money from some insane people. There’s a new £5 note introduced in the UK at the moment and some rarer serial number notes are selling for lunatic prices. This is likely a short term craze, kind of like dutch tulips but without the potential to get a nice flower as a consolation prize. You can see a story about it here. Why is that affecting my day? Well an old friend received one of those notes this morning, and I need to sell it for him before this little speculative bubble pops. 🙂
Stan and I did an education webinar yesterday on ‘Trading Using Pattern Analysis’ and if you missed that you can see the video on this page here. I must warn you though that if you are one of the surprisingly large number of people who believe that the standard textbooks on patterns and trendlines are the literal word of a TA deity/deities, then there is a lot of TA heresy in the webinar, so it might be worth avoiding in your case. If you are open to new ideas in TA then you should watch it.
Everyone have a great weekend.
