We’re not getting to 1150! (by Osbourne Cox)

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This is going to be quick and dirty.  Yesterday I posted about what I discovered about the correlation in the QQQQs between now and 2007.  And I followed that to go long today.  Awesome!

2010_QQQQ Revised

But something has been nagging me.  The pattern says we'll get above box 14. But that puts us above the left shoulder.  So that can't be right.

Looking back, I see that ONLY the QQQQs reached the height of the left shoulder.  SPY and DIA did not.  IWM exceeded it.

H&S-2007

This is where we are now:

H&S_2010

I don't think SPY/ES is the measure for the climb.  I think the QQQQs are.  And there's about 1 point left.

Based on this, I think it's a mistake to try to wait to hit 1150.  That's too neat and clean.  It's going to happen before that.