One of Albert's many good quotes is, "Keep things as simply as possible, but not any simpler."
Well,
what I know about Elliott Wave is that 1) it is fractal and 2) the
pattern is 5-3. However, that is enough information to help me draw
some interesting conclusions.
The chart above says it all. Wave 5 has just begun.
Corrective Wave 2 and 4 are boxed. Both corrections were exactly 9.1%,
and both had distinct 3 wave patterns. As such, the other sell-offs
along this bull market, which arguably did not have distinct 3 wave
patterns, can be disregarded in the wave count. Another argument
validating W2 and w4 is that each has touched the major channel that
envelopes this entire bull market.
Here's the break down of the up-waves:
Note that W1 and W3 had nearly identical point moves. The average is
285. If you tack that onto the Feb low of 1045, the result is 1330. This price is in the upper bound of the channel that I have drawn in the chart. Also, 2 x 666.79 equals 1333.50. The bull market terminates at a 100% return. Picture perfect.
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Note:
the speculation of a move to 1330 is fun and elegant, but I do not give
it too much weight. It's possible, but I currently think 1240-1275 will
be the top. However, the critical thesis in the argument above is that
the final up-wave of the bull market has just begun.
You can find other analyses of mine at White Magic & Its Exposure
