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An Unusually Bullish Projection

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Editor’s Note: What you are about to read is dead wrong. So keep reading, because there’s a correction later…………

As I mentioned when SlopeCharts was introduced, one advantage of forcing me off ProphetCharts (which I have been using for a dozen years) was that I would get a fresh perspective on the markets. With all my symbols, trendlines, and other embellishments gone, I’d be able to perhaps shake off some old biases (or at least reduce them).

In that spirit, I offer this rather surprising post, in which I offer up the prospect of equity markets rising another 10% or so. Now perhaps my stating such a thing – – me, the permabear, saying something broadly bullish – – will be taken by some as a sign of the market top. I’ll happily exchange ridicule for top-ticking a market in exchange for a true downtrend! But regardless, here we go……….

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The Charlie X Solution

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Like other members of the sane world, I have been disturbed and distressed about the latest doings of the religion of peace, as Islamic nut-jobs terrorize the gentle citizens of Paris with murder and mayhem. As a writer myself, I feel strongly about the need for uncensored speech, and to see these members of what surely must be the universe’s most psychologically-insecure religion slay satirists is deeply saddening.

And yet on Friday morning, the solution came to me in a shot. And, as with most good solutions, it comes from no less a place than Star Trek: The Original Series. Hear all now my idea:

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Recommended Reading

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Great Deformation
Big Debt Crises
The Fourth Turning
Currency Wars
The Big Short
Art of the Trade
The Patterning Instinct
Fooled by Randomness
Trading in the Zone
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns
Technical Analysis
Education of a Speculator
Market Wizards

The Great Deformation

Simply stated, this is the best business book I've ever read. Written by Sloper David Stockman, it addresses the political and corporate dealings which have, over the past several decades, put us in the mess we're in. I cannot recommend it highly enough. I also would direct your attention toward the superb Contra Corner, a five-times-a-week essay Mr. Stockman writes, and to which I am a delighted paying subscriber.

Big Debt Crisis

Ray Dalio, the famed money manager from Bridgewater, has come out with a new three-volume set which I realize this isn’t the kind of thing that would grab most people’s attention, but honestly, it’s fascinating. It is packed with hundreds of historical charts and dozens of examples from other centuries and other countries where economic mayhem took hold. Since I believe the entire globe is heading toward something catastrophic……….forewarned is forearmed

The Fourth Turning

Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era – a turning – every two decades or so….Together the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and destruction. This book lays it out and predicts about what is to come.

Currency Wars

Excellent and easy-to-read volume about fiat devaluation and how countries use it for both positive and negative motives. This is far and away the best book I've ever read about currencies, and the way he weaves history into the text makes it fascinating.

The Big Short

An absolutely superb account of the mortgage bond meltdown of 2007-2008. Michael Lewis has written another can't-put-it-down bestseller. Now a major motion picture!

Art of the Trade

Unlike anything I've ever read; very philosophical, very subtle - - almost sublime - - it helps you get inside the mind of a winning trader.

The Patterning Instinct

One of the best books I’ve ever read. I cannot recommend it strongly enough. It delves into Western Philosophy, Eastern Philosophy, ethics, science, history, religion, racism, the exploitation of man, ecology, international relations, the age of the explorers…………it is a smorgasbord of information woven together into a volume which is educational, inspiring, and sobering.

Fooled by Randomness

Nassim Taleb's superb book about statistics, causality, probabilities, and the market. This is one of the best books related to trading I've ever encountered.

Trading in the Zone

A terrific guide to trading discipline......almost zen-like.

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns

In this revised and expanded second edition of the bestselling Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Thomas Bulkowski updates the classic with new performance statistics for both bull and bear markets and 23 new patterns, including a second section devoted to ten event patterns. Bulkowski tells you how to trade the significant events -- such as quarterly earnings announcements, retail sales, stock upgrades and downgrades -- that shape today?s trading and uses statistics to back up his approach.

Technical Analysis of Stock Trends

The Bible of technical analysis. A must-read. Its advanced age its evident from its old-timey charts, but every technician must read this book.

Education of a Speculator

A provocative and penetrating look into the mind, the soul, and the strategies of one of the most controversial traders of all time

Market Wizards

A can't-put-down collection of interviews with traders. Essential reading and full of fascinating profiles. I used to work for one of these "wizards", but that's a story in itself.

What’s Wrong With This Credit Card? (by Goatmug)

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BONDS ARE SIGNALING WHAT?

I'm pretty much the last guy in the world to expect an implosion in long dated treasury bonds, and this week has really been amazing to watch long bonds get smacked around.

In the past, I stated strongly that treasury bonds weren't going anywhere and in fact we'd see 30 year mortgages at sub 3% levels.  I still believe that the Fed will fight and fight to keep rates low as they don't have any choice but to purchase their cocktail of MBS, and mixed treasuries, or else the whole US economy my tank (isn't that what they say every month?).  This week, Tim made a great post with a very bearish call on bonds.  I was bold enough to post a picture of TLT and suggested that a gentleman's bet was in order and that we'd see $130 on TLT before we see his number of $100.  Could either happen?  Of course, but I also suggested that Tim would get some quick confirmation and that it would reinforce that he was correct in the short term, but this would only serve to make his beat down more painful, and ultimately he'd have to hand over my dollar.

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