Forgive me, readers, for I have sinned.
In my three rules, the very first one I state – which I consider the most important – is to never lack a stop price. I had a position on OIH. I had a stop at $195. And as it, to my amazement, approached that level, I simply cancelled the stop.
That was really, really dumb. My "three rules" were crafted over many years of hard experience. I say "no exceptions" for a reason. Telling myself I'd ride out the tide and see how it goes was the kind of mistake an amateur makes.
Well, you know how this story ends. OIH kept grinding higher and higher, and once it reached $208, I couldn't take the pain anymore, so I sold my puts at a far greater loss than if I had simply let the stop do its work.
Now, at this point, there is a possibility OIH could temporarily top out and weaken. But – – again – – simply hanging onto a position and hoping for the best is idiocy. Shame on me.
OK, enough self-flagellation for the moment. The market continues to be far stronger than I'd like to see. Yeah, the Dow fell a little today, but I still think we're in "retracement-land". I am watching, for example, the $MSH. I am OK with it so long as it stays beneath that horizontal line.
One key component, of course, is Apple, which reports after the close on Wednesday. Errr, needless to say, everyone is going to be watching this like a hawk after-hours, particularly given GOOG's incredible blow-out last week.
As for oil – in spite of my debacle with OIH, I still have a lot of oil-related shorts. Chart-wise, there is a lot of interesting activity here. BHI has fully retraced to what I consider a face shorting zone.
And CVX – even on a day when oil hit yet another record – is showing weakness. I'm thinking "quadruple top" when I look at this.
My martyr complex is on full-blast right now, so I'd say the video below represents my vision of what a Slope Convention in Vegas would be like in August. A few of the dramatis personae…...
- Jesus H. Christ – Tim (who else?)
- Mary Magdalene – Jana (understudy: Avalon)
- Judas Iscariot – JakeGint
- Simon Zealotes – Peachin
- King Herod – Ned
- Caiaphas– Abby Joseph Cohen
- Pontius Pilate – Beanie
