We seem to have banged our way back down to the trendline. Bold souls may seriously consider getting bearish here. Not for the timid, though………
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Rough Day!
I've been stopped out of a number of positions today………..HON, AAPL, GENZ, FLR, and a few others. My index puts (and most of my other positions) have been getting tossed about the room. Worrisome!
The intermediate line in the sand on the IWM, for me, is 70.49, and my stop on the $RUT is anything above 705.99.
I am following my "make it, then take it" rule I set up for myself at the end of 2007 – – – that is, after banking some good profits, I take it out of my account and shove it into my pocket. It's crude, I know, but it works. I'd rather keep my account size pretty consistent instead of trying to build it into something huge and then losing a big chunk on a big error. Days like today make me glad for such discipline. Remember: MAKE it, then TAKE it!
Day One Ya-Yas
It seems the bulls view the start of this new quarter similar to how most people view each New Year………..an opportunity for a fresh start. A time to make amends. An opportunity to lose weight, make more money, and finally make that relationship commitment. Meh. This rally will last as long as those New Year's resolutions do.
In the meantime, enjoy the spiffy new grid charts we released last night. (For those of you on Prophet, Toolbox, or TOS, anyway)………
Quarter’s End
"The wiseacres on the Street are quick to cloak their opportunistic bullishness in the guise of being contrarians, making a lot of noise about how everyone's so blamed bearish. The true contrarians these days are not the optimists, but, rather, those of us who believe that most investors, for all they might profess a negative tilt for the nonce, simply haven't a clue as to how bad things might get." – Barron's, March 31, 2008
Set aside all the other stuff. Set aside the sentiment indicators and CNBC. Ignore the bottom-fishers and the volatility readings. Turn your back on the pundits and the prognosticators. And just ask yourself this………
Looking at these quarterly charts of the major indexes, do you consider them bullish or bearish? It all comes down to that. Because we immerse ourselves in the tick-by-tick gyrations of every trading day, it's easy to lose sight of the big picture. So sometimes we need to make the granularity much, much cruder to gain true insight. So ask yourself that question, answer honestly, and act accordingly.
