In contrast to the week before, last week was kind of a dud. Equities really didn't go much of anywhere, and oil alternated between new highs and tantalizing dips. All in all, pretty much of a snoozer.
From a retracement perspective, most of the indexes are very close to their 23.6% levels. A failure to take out the recent lows from May would ruin any short-term bear case.
I have taken a particular interest in the NASDAQ, including the very similar $MSH graph, shown below. Last week was quite strong for this index, but it is approaching May's high. If it falls away from that level (about $625) and takes out May lows, this could be an excellent example of a retracement to a broken trendline. The head and shoulders pattern that I was tracking on this index has long been rendered moot.
The dynamics in the high-tech area are easier to see in the broader $COMPQ. The thick purple line is critically important resistance.
I don't have my puts in $XAU anymore, although I do have puts in a couple of gold equity stocks like ABX. This graph is intriguing and, as I've mentioned before, any weakness here could send this easily to the $160 level.
As you've probably noticed, I've turned pretty cool to my former favorite $RUT (Russell 2000). My favorite index put right now is the $SPX. My stop is not set at the highs of May; instead, it is set to the prior high of May 2, which is 1422.72.
Now on to a few individual equities, all of which I am either short or on which I own puts. The first is CAT, which quickly failed its breakout attempt.
I've been a little disappointed that CEPH has shown its recent strength, but I'm still hoping that this "tilted" head and shoulders, shown here………..
…….results in the same kind of plunge that befell a very similar pattern, HSY, several years back………
Coach is looking good, with a very plainly defined resistance line.
I had taken my profits on FSLR a couple of days ago, but I re-entered the position Friday when it was up about $25. A break beneath Thursday's low price would be ruinous for the price, in my opinion.
The transports have been wild lately, in spite of $130 oil. Ryder's explosive rise looks due for a rest to me, especially because of the shrinking volume lately.
BIDU puts are very expensive, so I've only got one of them. The line of resistance speaks for itself; in addition, just check out that withering volume.
I got OSTK puts on Thursday, and the stock took a nearly 10% tumble the next day.
CERN's pattern is working really nicely, with our old buddy the horizontal line doing its job.
And CHTT, mentioning in its own post on Friday, seems to have completed a relatively clean, if a bit complex, head and shoulders pattern.
I'll be doing some business travel on Monday, so I'll probably be rather quiet. Have a good weekend!
