Today was a pretty lame-o trading day for me for a couple of reasons. One, I am heavily oriented toward bearishness on energy/ags, and those didn't do very well (in spite of crude oil softening up a little bit); and two, in hindsight, simply sticking with my index puts would have been better than trying to jump into index calls.
Now, before anyone thinks I'm suddenly a wild-eyed bulltard, I will remind you that my bearish positions (55) radically outnumber by bullish ones (6). But, based on the charts I'm looking at, I still think the market is due for a brief bounce. It tried to do so today, but I think the end-of-quarter craziness (particularly with such an historic quarter) distorted things pretty severely. In spite of my pain today, I am still embracing the thesis that energy prices will soften substantially, which will provide a "reason" for a decent equity rally. My positions are laid out for a one-two punch in this scenario.
Now, I know everyone refuses to believe we will bounce until the $VIX zooms past 30. I'm not convinced. Maybe people are used to things sucking now, so the "fear" isn't as prevalent as before (perhaps the $VIX is as much as surprise index as it is a fear index). I don't insist on a VIX spike.
If we have weakness again tomorrow, I will be double-bummed, not only because of my index calls (gack, it's hard for me to even type that) but because of my closed-out index puts. But looking at the $INDU, I would feel radically more comfortable buying puts if the bulls fought their way back to the area just below 12,000.
The QQQQs touched their Fibonacci retracement today. I'd like to see this bounce up to the next level higher, at which time I would re-acquire $NDX puts.
My Russell puts, which I sold late on Thursday, have continued to soar in "woulda/coulda" value. I'm leaving my tinted target there.
My one big index call position is on the SPX, which seems to be the most resilient right now. Mid-March lows are the obvious stop-loss on this.
I'll share a handful of positions now. I got some calls on JPM today. Considering LEH's 10% whack today, this one is holding up pretty well.
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My puts on MasterCard (MA) hold good promise, based on the clean pattern and high equity price.
I was waiting for another chance to get into AZO, and I got it today.
I am very excited about the ICE graph. This is a huge, HUGE pattern. Just a few more points, and we'll have a fully-busted neckline.
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I wasn't expecting PCLN to cooperate so quickly, but it did. A beautiful broken major trendline here.
Here's a close-up of SOHU, which is also a dainty H&S pattern. I also like the fact volume is picking up sharply as this starts to falter.
That's it for today, folks. Again, this will be a shortened week – – normal trading for just a couple more days, then an abbreviated session on Thursday. Thanks for stopping by, and good luck to all Slopers!
