There seems to be a trend in my trading lately. The day will start off poorly. My portfolio will go deeply into the red. Then it will turn around, and it will end up nicely in the green. This has happened every day this week. It's sort of nervewracking. It's not that I'm monkeying around with my portfolio – – I'm doing hardly anything. But it seems the bulls are making a valiant effort at the start of each day, and it starts to fall away from them at some point.
The intraday chart of the S&P 500, shown below, includes everything from the mid-March nadir to the current price levels. It's pretty easy to see the head and shoulders pattern stretching over the past six weeks. This looks like a nice topping formation. But it all comes down to Friday morning's jobs report. That will provide either a bearish climax to a good week or a bullish wreck to a formerly bearish week.
Conversely, the $VIX over the same span of time sank from about 36 to less than half that amount, and it has climbed up into the lower 20s again. It looks like there's plenty of room left on this.
It is, however, make-or-break time for many indexes. In one day, the bulls could retake control or the bears could continue the momentum downward. Just look at the chart below: get it over 2,550, the bulls are in command; get it below 2,450, and the bears are. Simple as that.
It's a similar story with the more narrow $NDX; we must break Wednesday's low to get seriously bearish.
As you know, I bailed on my $XAU position a few days ago (profitably, but a bit early). I've still got a few gold shorts which are doing great, and with the dollar's newfound strength, this could really take a tumble.
Some stocks seem to be incapable of finding a bottom. Just look at MBIA.
And, for that matter, AMBAC. Can you believe this was nearly a $100 stock just last year?
Ah, yes, and First Solar. I've said repeatedly $250 is the key level. Well, this goose is cooked. I'm hanging on to this position so I can watch it grow.
A newer position for me is FWLT. I've had bad luck with this in the past. Let's see if we can do better this time.
With energy softening, there are a lot of high fliers with plenty of room beneath this. Cimarex is a favorite of mine.
Lastly, Valmont is at the high end of a broadening top.
I am, by the way, on my way to my CMT. There are three examinations, and I passed the first one (I found out yesterday). I have to admit, I'm a little shocked. There were so many point & figure questions (about which I know next to nothing), I was sure I had flunked. Onward!
