Today was a welcome relief, but it still doesn't get us over the fact that this summer's frenetic up-and-down motion is agonizing for bulls and bears alike. Even if we had a single week of a consistent downturn, I'd nail all my financial goals for the year. As it is now, I have to play offense one day, defense the next, offense the next day, defense the next. Feh!
The $UTIL, which you all know I'm especially bearish on, is on the right track again. A break beneath 460 would spell doom for this index and usher in the 20% drop on which I am counting.
I've got a medium-sized position on QQQQ puts; the $NDX is below its retracement line (barely) and below its fan line. Weakness in the $NDX would send it, I am supposing, about 150 points lower.
Every technician on the planet is eyeing 1265 on the S&P. I've tinted in the key area. I know I've said it ten times already, but I'll say it again: a break beneath this level will make the job of the bears really, really simple. Until then, we remain mired in this dread battle. September, "the month of the bear", will hopefully smile kindly on us.
Oil and gold look nicely poised for a tumble; I'd bank on OIH to fall to 165.
And this ten year chart of $XAU positions this instrument for about a 20 point fall in the near term.
One specific gold short I'm fond of is AEM:
The recovery in financials is starting to peter out, I think. The rally following July 15 was gigantic, but the volume is shriveling up. I repurchased puts on BAC today, and both FNM and FRE had sharp percentage drops today.
What follows are a variety of charts, some of which you've seen, that I like a lot as short positions.
We'll close this week out with Art Garfunkel singing "April Come She Will", one of my favorites. This only reminds me that Art should be made a saint.
