Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fumbling

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Lest anyone think I say every single day is perfect, today has been pretty rough, in contrast to the past three days, all of which were insanely profitable. First off, I got stopped out of my FXP, SDS, and EEV positions right at the open because I had my stops way too tight, so I saw $50k in profits vanish instantly. I then went aggressively long OIH and SSO, and that was a fiasco. The good news is that I have so many short positions, there was no way humanly possible to close them out and harm myself! So I'm still sitting pretty on a huge quantity of shorts and puts.

I've tried to make up for some of the damage by selling off a bunch of ES at 852, and that has helped. But I've been mostly all thumbs so far today. The only bullish position I'm still holding on to at this point is the Russell 2000 calls, on which I've got a contingent stop at $441.92.

For Clarity’s Sake

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My post-length is going to be comment-length today. Just to be clear, I haven't gone uber-bull on you. If you read Elliott Wave or Evil Speculator, you'll see the chances of a decent rally to about 960 or so on the S&P may be in the cards, but it would be the final nail in the coffin for the market as it collapses below the oft-cited triangle.

I am trimming shorts/puts selectively. I got my entire FXP profit blown to smithereens at the opening bell this morning, and I've only got one big bullish position – UWM – plus some nice-sized call positions on $RUT and OIH.

Anyway, you're still on Slope. Don't worry.

Right Said TED

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Just like I used to spend an awful lot of time as a frustrated bear in years past, trying to find any evidence of "bad news" for the market, today's bulls are desperate to find good news. One thing they've latched onto is the TED spread, which has tightened up quite a bit with all the multi-trillion dollar worldwide government handouts.

If you pretended this graph was a stock chart, though, wouldn't it seem like a "buy" to you? It seems to have pushed nicely off the base, done a clean retracement, and is ready to soar again. A longer-term view gives an even more compelling picture that we are simply at the low end of a "new normal" range now.

Be warned that I am even busier than normal today, so the comment count might reach Atilla-sized levels (e.g. many hundreds). So………deal with it.