With a mere 9 trading days left in 2008 (two of which are before major holidays and, as such, will be pretty much dead), the balance of 2008 will be people biding their time, waiting for this wretched (for most) year to be finally over. Just about the only major reports coming out are the GDP next Tuesday and Durable Goods Orders the day following. The rest of 2008 is probably going to be quite the snoozer.
The real "juice" to the wave 4 rally will be in January. It would be somewhat poetic if it peaked on Inauguration Day, when maybe it will occur to people that Obama isn't Jesus Christ. That realization might take a few weeks, though; however long it takes, that'll be the peak of wave 4, and then it's time to par-tay again. Between now and then, this will continue to be an ungodly tough market to trade profitably.
The interest rate market has, as we know, entered the undiscovered country of 0% rates. The insanity of 2008 has inured people to the madness going on about them. This graph should be the stuff of science fiction. Instead, it is the result of the Bush/Bernanke/Paulson plan that will, in my opinion, bring the current embodiment of this country to ruin.
That'll take a few years, though. In the meantime, I am intrigued that in spite of the EUR absolutely exploding higher………….
……….oil is doing squat. Indeed, oil had two huge advantages – – one, the EUR/USD surge, and two, a 15% cut in production announced by OPEC over its past couple of meetings. So what did oil do today? It went down! WOW.
My view is as follows:
- Short-Term (the rest of 2008) – bearish, but with a healthy dose of long positions purchased earlier this month (my "long shots")
- Medium-Term (January, maybe February) – bullish, but secretly rubbing my hands together, waiting to pounce
- Long-Term (from whenever the public realizes that BHO isn't JHC on forward) – the lovable bear that you adore
And with that, my beloved readers, I bid you a good evening. (Tim vanishes in a mysterious cloud of green smoke………….)
