Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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One-Sixth Remains

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With the first ten months of the year now out of the way, a mere one-sixth of 2023 remains. Considering how absolutely insane this year has been already in all arenas (financial, geopolitical, legal, you name it), one can only tremble to consider what the next two months might hold.

Rather than dare speculate on the dozens of weighty matters already vexing the globe, I will simply focus on an octet of cash index charts along a common theme: the notion that each of them has hammered out a formidable and well-formed topping pattern and that, preposterous as it might seem to the mainstream pundits (and flying in the face of endless-cited bullish seasonality), it is within the realm of possibility that new lows for 2023 could be on hand for at least a few major indexes.

For simplicity’s sake, the format of each of the charts below is consistent. Specifically:

  • There are a few basic drawn objects to highlight what I consider important patterns and levels of support/resistance;
  • In some cases, a pink semi-circle offers a boundary for what I consider to be a reversal pattern;
  • A green tinted area approximates the important overhead supply for any given index and, thus, an area that should be quite resistant to easy price ascent;
  • A red rectangle shows the potential “drop zone” for the balance of the year. To be clear, it’s virtually impossible to know what a stock or index is going to do the next day, let alone the next two months, so do not interpret this red rectangle as some kind of firm prediction. Instead, it represents the prospective risk area through which prices could move, based on an approximate measured move or some meaningful support level beneath price presents.

Having said all that, let’s go through the indexes one by one. We begin with the all-important S&P 500: