acrowder – Page 12 – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Market Moves Further Into Oversold State (by Andy Crowder)

By acrowder - 12 years ago (25, Nov 2011 5:55:02 AM)

The market has pushed into one of the most short-term oversold states that I have seen in quite some time. Almost every ETF I follow is now in a “very oversold” state with RSI (2) readings below 5 and over half below 1 – a rarity indeed.

So, now is the time that I want to be aggressive on the long side, but only for a few trading days. Conditions like the aforementioned almost always work themselves back to mean-reversion and I want to be a participant when the short-term occurs. I already have several trades on in both of my options strategies and plan on adding several more over the next few trading days, that is unless we see an enormous bounce before the opening bell Friday, which I think is highly doubtful.

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Another Short-term Opportunity (by Andy Crowder)

By acrowder - 12 years ago (22, Nov 2011 8:50:50 AM)

I am going to keep it very short tonight. I think my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion chart says it all – a short-term bounce (1-3 days) is imminent.

Yes, the market has pushed into a short-term oversold state and as a result, I have been trading like mad in both of my options strategies. As a contrarian, it is times like these that I feel most comfortable taking a position.

When the ETFs I follow have RSI (2) readings below 2 and followed by a gap lower in the market I am perfectly comfortable adding exposure through directional plays like calls and of course, selling bull put spreads.

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Short-Term Extremes Enter Market (by Andrew Crowder)

By acrowder - 12 years ago (18, Nov 2011 8:36:08 AM)

I am keeping it short tonight, but I wanted to give all of you a quick glimpse into the current short-term state of the market.

If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my : Free Weekly Report Twitter? Join Here. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my info there as well. Just click on LIKE.

Know Your Probabilities (by Andrew Crowder)

By acrowder - 12 years ago (14, Nov 2011 2:54:15 PM)

Do you think about probabilities on each and every investment/trade you make? You should.

A football analyst can tell you the probability that a team scores after entering the red zone.

Why? Because these probabilities matter and they are easy to figure out. They simply look at the data that is presented to them.

So, why is it that when I read a research report from a financial analyst they can't just simply tell me the likelihood that a stock will meet their expected price targets?

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Short-Term Overbought – The Decline Begins Now

By acrowder - 12 years ago (31, Oct 2011 4:24:37 AM)

The rally has been furious and fast. In less than four weeks, the Dow has risen 14.8 percent from its 2011 low, reached on Oct. 3. The S&P has gained 17 percent. The rally has been historic. If tomorrow holds 3% on the S&P, the major market benchmark will set the performance record for a one-month time frame.

While I mentioned that the market was short-term oversold towards the beginning of the month I never thought the market would rally this far, this fast. The S&P pushed through 1200, then 1220, followed by 1250 and now it sits at 1285. Amazing!

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