Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Trade with a Margin of Error (by Andy Crowder)

By -

Okay, I think we all know my bias at this point. For those who don’t, it’s bearish.

I am not going to bother going into why I am bearish. Just read my posts from the last few weeks to truly understand why I am currently bearish.

So, I want to talk about something more important today – strategy. More specifically options strategies.

With options, you can control with precision, the amount of risk and type of risk you wish to take in any given trade in any situation.

One of my favorite strategies is selling vertical call/put spreads like in the Theta Driver Options Strategy.

Let me explain. And please understand I am keeping it simple for conceptual reasons. Once, you understand the basics we can really dig deep to understand how to apply risk-management.

(more…)

The Grind Higher Continues….For Now

By -

As you all know I have had a bearish tone since mid-January.

The market had moved into a short-term overbought state, excessive optimism had pushed into the market and seasonality had entered a historically bearish.

And over the past several weeks all of the aforementioned have pushed further and further into a bearish state.

But, the bulls have yet to waver and the grind continues. Since December 19th the S&P 500 (SPY) has climbed over 12% without pause.

(more…)

Interesting Probabilities Surrounding Payrolls

By -

Will the beginning of the “anticipated” correction come tomorrow?

The Nonfarm Payroll report is often a market mover and I expect to see much of the same tomorrow.

The market is wound tight and typically when that occurs we are witness to a large directional move.

I expect, regardless of how positive (or negative) the report is tomorrow, the market will push lower.

(more…)

A Statistical Approach to Outperforming the Market

By -

What would you buy now?

Seriously?  Is that a question that we, as self-directed investors should have to answer. Yet the question is asked everyday in almost every financial media outlet. And most of the answers lack depth and sound reason. Moreover, the probability of choosing a successful stock is always 50/50. Why do you think monkeys throwing darts at the WSJ stock section performed almost as well as the professionals. Remember, it's a game that is controlled by marketing. Think about it. The message is so powerful on the major media outlets that they, the media, actually make you think the financial professionals that grace their airwaves and their respective companies can outperform the market. Yet, look at the facts 

 

(more…)