It may honestly seem like I just come here to bellyache about how boring the markets are, but that's really not my cup of tea. It's just a plain fact these days. I wish I could dream up entertainment for you, but at this stage, I can't. Nothing says it better than the somniferous $VIX.

The IWM pushed higher today to what I thought would be a bounce off its neckline. Nope. It sailed through the neckline, and the Dow was up in the triple digits again. Then it started to fade. Because this market can't make up its mind, can it? It fell beneath the neckline (which in this case is one of the Fibonacci retracements), and then zipped above it again. So it's acting more like a magnetic than a point of support or resistance. Annoying.

The Dow Transports are still threatening to blast higher. A cut above that 5,025 level would be pretty bullish. Yesterday's repulsion from this level doesn't spell the end of this pattern at all.

The NASDAQ had a strong day relative to other broad markets, and we've spent every day since the April Fool's Day rally fiddling around. There's no clear direction here. It's aggravating to both sides, I'm sure.

I don't bother trading the $SOX, but if I had to find a bullish index pattern, this would be a pretty strong one (along with the $TRAN, should the aforementioned breakout occur).

Looking at the purple lines below (which are the mid-term Fibs), we remain below the level of resistance set at about 1,390. The thick red lines represent shorter-term Fibs, and we're below the one at 1,380. A break below 1,330 is essential within the next week or so for the bears to get control again.

Oil (particularly OIH) continues to be exasperating, although at least the oil service stocks are not rocketing to lifetime highs like crude oil is. I look for silver linings where I can!

MRK has fallen a lot this year, but for those who believe the downtrend will continue, this is a pretty good place to do it (a nice doji pattern at a Fibonacci line).

Now for a few charts I really don't mention much. These aren't really optionable, but I think they are pretty good shorts. There's Acuity Brands (AYI):

CNH Global:

FMC Technologies:

Randgold Resources (with the nifty ticker symbol GOLD):

Wimm-Bill Dann (WBD), sporting a really handsome topping pattern:

And, more risky, Sunpower (SPWR) with a clean stop at $95:

Blog traffic remains strong, although it's inching down, because the markets aren't that interesting to read about these days. Friday (tomorrow) is pretty much devoid of economic news or any interesting earnings reports, so we may just fart around again. Earnings season goes full-tilt in a couple of weeks, so there will be lots to talk about every single day. Until then……..take it easy!

It's sometimes tempting to trade more actively. I saw a nice four-figure (nearly five-figure) profit on my screen this morning. I walk away to make a bowl of oatmeal. I come back, and it's a four-figure loss. And it's not because something dramatic happened. But the market is going to wiggle its way up or down constantly. My intuition tells me that trying to overly optimize one's trading profits is probably a great way to wind up with a $0 balance.

So I'm taking it easy, and the only action this morning is to beef up my Russell 2000 put position, since I think what we have at the moment is a pretty nice retracement on the (admittedly small) H&S pattern that finally was realized yesterday.

I'm going to be pretty quiet today, as I've got an important most-of-the-day meeting. See ya later…..

Well, over the past couple of days, I've discovered a couple of things about Slope readers.

• They are committed germophobes. At least Jana and AssetStrategist. Wussies.
• They have passionate views about Elliott Wave. I don't think I've ever received as many emails on a single topic (except for that time that I sang a capella). 

Today was a good day for me, in spite of the continued rise of oil and gold. The Russell 2000 fell below 700 for the first time since the April Fool's Day Rally, and it closed near its lows of the day.

The Dow Transports, which had been worrying me a bit due to a possible breakout, fell particularly sharply (due, I suppose to UPS' warning).

Of particular interest was the drop on the $XBD securities broker/deal index. I've got puts on a number of investment banks (including GS and LEH), and this chart to me is a picture-perfect "waterfall" with a plain series of lower lows and lower highs. May it continue!

I have 75 different positions now – all of them puts (as is almost always the case). Here are a few worth pointing out……..

America Movil (AMX), like the $TRAN, was threatening a breakout, but it is starting to fall away. Failed bullish breakouts made for great bear meat.

BIDU (which reports earnings, weirdly, on Saturday) isn't a slam-dunk, but an earnings disappointment here could easily nuke 40-50 points off the price.

FXI is finally starting to click. The climb from $120 to $150 (25% in just a couple of weeks!) is beginning to erode.

A somewhat more speculative play on my books is ISRG, which had been a barnstormer until the end of last year. Here again we have the prospect of a failed bullish breakout. The stop on all of these is obviously the horizontal line.

I mentioned oil's strength before. The commodity was in record territory again, nearing $110. Let's see if we get a double-top on it. My stop at $195 stands firm for OIH.

Among my long list of energy-related shorts is PBR, which has the makings of a nice head and shoulders top.

Finally, Valmont (VMI) is hammering out what I think could be the third part of a triple top.

This stage of the market, for me, involves a lot more speculation than usual (hence my language being filled with "could be" and "looks like" and "might). It's just the nature of the beast right now. As for tomorrow, it is the only interesting day for economic reports this week. Let's hope for some follow through, eh?

Let me start with an important disclaimer: I know only enough about Elliott Wave Theory to be dangerous. I am very, very new to this, and I am currently studying Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably with the goal of understanding this topic better.

I imagine I would have endeavored to learn about this topic many years ago, but I felt very badly burned after reading At the Crest of the Tidal Wave back in 1995. The author, Robert Prechter, made what I thought was a very compelling case for the Dow to hit a wall at something like 4,500 and plunge to Depression-era levels. It was my fault to take the book so seriously, but I definitely felt "cheated" out of the incredible surge from 1995-1999 based on my embrace of this book.

Long story short, I was so disenchanted with my experience, I decided the entire topic of Elliott Wave Theory must be a big load of crap.

I also am sensitive to the frequent dismissals of EWT based on the fact that proponents can change their prognostications and predictions at will simply by saying "I had the count wrong!" I am a stickler for technical analysis being either Right or Not Right about a given prediction, and I don't allow myself "rubber trendlines" or other such graces in my own work. Revisionism is the road to ruin.

Having said all that, I still want to give EWT a shot. I become interested in the subject again by tripping across Tony Caldaro's web site, The Elliott Wave Lives On. I don't know Tony, but when I wrote him a few weeks back asking permission to display one of his charts, he promptly wrote me back and said yes. So he's already a good guy in my book!

Anyway, back around the start of the year, he created this intriguing chart and had the testicular fortitude to make a prediction. I was so interested in the chart, I printed it out and have been toting it around in my backpack ever since.

I was re-examining this chart a couple of days ago, and, to my eyes, what unfolded was pretty remarkable. I'm not sure if Tony would agree with my own very "greenhorn" analysis, but what I see is:

The big question, of course, is whether the B-wave has finished or not. Third time: I barely know what I am doing, so I have no idea. But if the analysis is correct and the B wave precedes the C-wave downward, which will push it below this year's lows, that would mean a return of some cool times for the bears.

Having issued so many caveats, I hopefully have defused any egg-throwing. But I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts on this topic and EWT in general. 

My stab at EWT is going to be delayed a bit. I just wanted to jump in and observe (gratefully) that the IWM has finally started getting interesting for the bears again. I think even a 1^st grader could identify this pattern.