We keep talking about the big range we're in, and how we're near the bottom of it, but a couple of things occurred to me. Let's pull up the chart first.
Thank you, Vanna. The first thing – – indeed, the most important thing – – the world is watching is whether we break below the lower blue line and sustain the drop. And the word "sustain" is an obvious reference to Thursday, during which time we plunged beneath the low for all of ten minutes (or six hundred seconds, if you need it to sound more lasting).
The second thing is this – – – even if, for whatever reason, buyers appear, there is a huge (dare I say ginormous? No; better not) amount of overhead supply created over the past five weeks. Notice how, with each successive attempt to move higher, (a) the push doesn't reach as far; (b) it is quickly beaten down.
The reason, I think, is that there has been a growing accumulation of owners of securities at these levels, and they're becoming increasingly despodent and eager to get out at any opportunity. For this reason, I think the odds of a meaningful breakout above these levels any time soon are becoming increasingly long.
