At great risk of being
cyberbullied here on this site, I thought I would share some of my thoughts on
EWP.
When I use EWP, I really only apply it to the indexes on a larger
time frame, usually daily or weekly charts. Sometimes it works well for me on
individual stocks on a much shorter time frame; but with that said, I feel that
waves are sometimes manipulated on short time frames 1-5 min charts. Motive
waves morph into a complex corrective patterns frustrating day traders using
EWP. It would kill me if I relied on it solely, I need other tools to show me
if the stock is overbought/oversold or signs of divergence.
I have spent many hours studying EWP and NeoWave,
many more hours than the average adult male of my age. It sort of disgusts my
mom, she always wanted me to go enjoy the outdoors with friends or maybe find
some sort of female woman to make babies with so the Goodwin name would live
on. Instead I wasted my time counting waves like some loser douche bag in my
bedroom (that's what she said-my mom).
I don't subscribe to EWI, NeoWave or any other subscription site
(I do have a good idea of what their counts are though). I don't really visit
many Elliott Wave blogs (some of those are great when one is trying to learn
EWP, but I would never use them for real trading). I also do not pay much
attention to any count I see on less than a daily time frame; I get lost in the
squiggles, see many errors and lose focus on the big picture. One of the
biggest problems I see with Elliott Wave is that when everyone is looking for
the same wave count, that count is quickly invalidated; which is one reason
Glenn Neely came up with NeoWave – an evolution of traditional Elliott Wave. He
claims that Elliott Wave/patterns have and will continue to change as more
people use it.
Learning how to use EWP and having confidence in my own counting
is what I strive for, not saying my count is right or that count is right. The STU updates over at EWI has had about as much success as my own counting over the
past year, maybe a little less. I always keep several counts, bullish, bearish
and neutral. When one gets invalidated, I remove that count and go on from
there. Nobody knows what is going to happen tomorrow or next week/month, I feel
that one needs to be very flexible and quick to change their mind if they want
to practice EWP. It has cost me greatly to be too stubborn with a certain
count, and there have been times when I totally scrap EWP for months at a time
while the market does whatever, then revisit EWP to see if something is making
sense.
Here is an example of one of my counts, one of six right now. It
is very flexible and not necessarily looking for P2 to end and the devastating
P3 to begin, although that is certainly possible. Moving around the larger
ABC's or changing a couple of the larger ABC's to 123's, one might see that
this sort of count could change to very bullish or become neutral depending on how we
proceed from here in the next few weeks or months.
Look, I really believe a monkey can count waves. The tricky part for
me is how fast I can/am willing to accept changes in my wave count, or
accepting that I'm wrong all together. I don't get pissed off of at some blogger or that STU guy at EWI, learning how and gaining the confidence to do it myself is what I
strive for. If I can't do that, I scrap it for a bit and use other tools until
the waves start making sense again.
Flame on.
