I'm still on vacation until the end of the week, but I've been keeping
an eye on the markets in my absence. Still no real sign of an imminent
equities top so far, but the evidence that USD has peaked for the moment
looks powerful.
The main USD rising channel since November has broken, and the first
five wave sequence up in USD would therefore seem to be finished. I've
marked the likely fib retracement targets on the chart, and have a
provisional channel for the first wave down:
As for SPX, the melt-up of this wave 5 (or wave 3 extension) since the
Feb 5th low continues. The latest wave channel looks likely to break up
soon though we may well see another touch of the main lower channel
trendline before that happens:
This USD top is significant though. There's now a distinct possibility
that the likely abc correction in USD will bottom as this wave 5 up (or
wave 3 extension) in equities tops. That's mixed as far as good news
goes though, as that abc is likely to take us into May.
A bit of comic relief I'd like to share with everyone. A man pleaded
guilty yesterday in Leicester (UK) to some extremely innapropriate
relations with a donkey and a horse, and when his lawyer was asking for
bail before sentencing he admitted that 'the defendant does not have a stable
address'.
Click on the donkey for the full story:
