The biggest "macro" disappointment I've had in the markets and my trading over the past six months is simple to explain, and I came across a chart this morning which does a nice job capturing it.
My expectation was that the markets, having rallied mightily from March to October, would crest at a major resistance level and simply roll over and resume their fall. So far, any falls have been nothing more than a tease.
There was a fall in late October; that got trounced by higher highs; there was a healthier fall in late January and early February; that was obliterated by dramatically higher highs. Yesterday's 200+ point dip might have been the beginning of simply another fake-out.
My expectations for the market were much closer to what NBG – a Greek bank, shown below – experienced. I guess the required fundamentals for my expectations had to be a lot worse than what we're seeing in the U.S.
