Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
When Will I Start Shorting Again? (By Ryan Mallory)
Bears are feeling pretty good about themselves these days – and they have every right to. It has been a long time waiting for their day of reckoning, and it finally has arrived for them.
However, this isn't a time to throw caution to the wind.
The market has had a very nice leg down that has broken all of the long-term trend-lines that were in place previously, some dating back to March of 2009. With that said, I believe that the easy money has been made in the most recent wave down, and we should see some kind of bounce in the coming days from the bulls trying to fight their way back into the picture.
My belief is that any rally that the bulls put together will be futile in the long-term as it will only be met with bearish enthusiasm to short the rallies that come our way. As for me, I am looking for a retracement of roughly 4-5% before initiating any new short-swing trades. And believe me I have a list of them I am ready to take advantage of – but for right now patience is the name of the game, and as hard as it is for me, I must demonstrate that often overlooked, but totally necessary characteristic.
As you can see in the chart I am waiting for that retracement to the 50% to 61.8% Fib level that I believe, will be where the bulls lose their grip on things, and consequently we'll get an even bigger plunge than what we've seen already this month.
Charts of the Week (by Mike Paulenoff)
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
NFTRH86 Excerpt – Currency (by Biiwii)
Here is the 'Wrap Up' segment from the
15 page NFTRH86, which went in depth on a range of
relevant issues currently facing financial markets:
Currency
Euro hype to the
upside was expressed for years by touts who had presented a picture that
it was just the big, bad USA alone that had major problems. All along
as a public writer and then in NFTRH I had
presented the euro as just another piece of paper with no real value
backing it. So recent events are somewhat refreshing from the standpoint
of the analysis, which sees major currencies in a race to the bottom
[of the barrel].
It appears that the mania toward the opposite
pole from over-bullish has gone too far however, and the euro can rally
at any time, possibly providing a good relief story for the broad market
to pin its ‘hope’ on once again. Similarly, the US dollar has expressed
itself in ‘too far, too fast’ fashion amid the euro hype.
The
euro just made a weekly close above important support while Uncle Buck
remains below the highs last seen during the worst parts of Armageddon
’08. Again, this is a picture of potential short-term relief for many
markets, first and foremost obviously, the euro. Longer term, these two
debt backed basket cases are featured players in the race to the bottom
in the currency world. All major currencies are contestants in this race
by the way; at least all major paper currencies. That is how pervasive
the ‘debt as economic fuel’ ethic of the current global economic system
has become.
While on the subject of currencies, let’s have a look at the progress of
gold as measured in a few of them by way of our Gold-Dow,
Gold-Currencies ratio chart. The breakout in Gold-Dow from its Hope ’09
consolidation is very early in its progress. While there can be some
post-breakout chop and grind, the risk vs. reward in gold vs. Dow is
favorable.
In the currency panels we see gold correcting from
over bought in British Pounds and euros after having achieved the rough
upside targets of the Cup ‘n Handle patterns. Further upside is
projected after some corrective consolidation. Gold in Canada dollars
breaks out from the handle but hits resistance at the rim of the cup. It
looks to go higher after dealing with this resistance. Gold-Aussie
dollar was noted previously as not being a cup due to very low right
side, yet was bullish above support. This expressed well in a strong
rise up toward resistance.
We are in the age of natural economic contraction being fought by policy
makers in the only way they seem to know; leveraging confidence in
their respective currencies into debt creation in a massive, world-wide
funding scheme. How long can this work? Perhaps longer than you or I
could hold out if we take a strong, active stance against it.
The
last year of euphoric bullish activity tells us something, and that is
that the masses are not yet ready to accept that the Fed, Treasury and
their counterparts around the world cannot ultimately control financial
events. So by definition, a confidence scheme runs as long as its one
underpinning – confidence – remains intact.
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