The Line That Really Matters

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What happens in the market in the coming days can be defined by one simple line:


Above the line is what I consider to be a marvelous topping pattern; below the line is the madness that took place last Thursday as well as the recovery since then.

If we fall away from this line – – and, more importantly, take out the lows from this week – – it's Tumble Time. If we push above that red line, well, it's going to be a big, fat, mushy mess, because there's all kinds of overhead supply.