It was a profitable, but very frustrating, day. I’ll save my bitching for later. Let’s get to the immediate news, which is that TSLA is tumbling after hours. As the proud owner of August puts, this suits me just fine. My puts are quite deep in the money ($235, believe it or not) so the drop should translate with a high level of purity to my bottom line, assuming nothing idiotic happens (which is not out of the question in this psychotic, government-controlled house of mirrors).
The daily chart of TSLA shows exceptionally strong support at about $165. If we fall down to either of these Fibonacci levels, I’ll exit stage left.
OK, back to my bitching: the market is seriously fucking with us, and it’s dreadfully tiresome. Time and again, we begin to show some weakness, we get our bearish little hearts going pitter-pat, and then BANG, up the elevator it goes again to approximately the major Fib line. Piss. Me. Off. I’m honestly quite sick of it. Quite.
Perversely, the most hopeful thing is that fear has left the building. We have a VIX now which is nothing short of embarrassing. Considering the absolute cataclysm that we’re stumbling toward, the notion that the VIX is in the mid-teens, at levels last seen when:
- The market was at LIFETIME highs;
- Interest rates were 0%
….is laughable beyond measure. The VIX at a 16-handle is hysterically absurd, but as you can see, we have been hammering out this entire sequence in cycles. On the one hand, you’ve got reality, which pushes VIX to the lower 30s, and then on the other hand, you have fraud, government intervention, and human stupidity, which smashes us down to a 16-handle. I want to be long fear.
As I wrap up my trading day, here’s where I stand:
- 25 positions;
- The most serious loss is about 4%; there are a handful of teeny losses right now;
- Most of the positions are showing a profit, some of them 30-40%, but nothing super-beefy. In other words, we are NOWHERE, and I mean NOWHERE, to where I’d considering taking profits.
- I have about 7% cash sitting around which I might deploy into two more positions tomorrow.
There’s plenty of 2023 in front of us. The government CANNOT keep absolute control of this thing all year long, even though the permabulls want it that way. At some point, it’s going to wriggle free from their communist grasp, and for a week or so, we’ll actually have a market that is raging out of control to the downside.
I assure you, the thought of that day gets me up every single morning.
