I wanted to catch up with some thoughts about seven key equity indexes.
Let’s start off with the NASDAQ Composite. We are near lifetime highs, thanks largely to the continuing NVDA/AI insanity. Once NVDA starts to break – – and it will break, mark my words – – it’s game over for the entire tech sector. There is no other.
Now we have the Dow 30 Industrials. This is a bit worrisome to me, since it’s still a bit “oversold”, although I don’t think it’s going to get much past the magical 40,000 mark. If we can break the horizontal, that will be a nice feather in the bearish cap.
The NASDAQ 100, not surprisingly, has the exact same logic as the NASDAQ Composite. I have personally shied away from tech shorts, since they have NOT been performing. The only tech short I’ve got at all is AMD, and that’s doing just dandy.
The Rusell 2000 is probably the most intriguing, or at least easiest to read, of them all. It has been range-bound for literally years at this point, and we’re clearly near the highest part of that range. This strongly favors short positions.
The semiconductor index has gone through some interesting phases. There was last autumn’s incredibly deceptive “top”, which turned out to be a complete fake-out. That commences a steady, sharply ascending channel. That channel broke months ago, and now we’ve been in a different channel. Quite clearly, we need to break the rightmost trendline, and it’s kind of up to NVDA to do the deed.
The S&P 500 has spent days floating around lifetime highs. It needs to cut below that dashed horizontal line to invalidate the bullish breakout.
Lastly, the Dow Transports are in a complete malaise. A few months back, it looked like the trannies were going to be the best friend of the bulls, but this bullish pattern completely petered out, and now it’s just treading water.
We’re just stuck in the muck, folks, although maybe Friday morning’s jobs report will finally shake things up.
