A few days ago, I speculated that:
- Gold would rise short-term
- Oil would rise short-term
- An opportunity to re-enter puts on agricultures would present itself near the end of that brief run
Well, I was right on all of these, but I never imagined it would be so short-lived! I thought we'd be in for, say, a week or so of the above. Instead it only took a couple of days.
This is one instance where my impatience worked for me. I took a big bullish position in ABX (for the gold play) at 32.50 and got out two days later at 35.50 (these were calls, so the percentage gain was very good). I also had a bunch of PXD with the same result. But, again, look how swiftly gold went up and then resumed its fall!
It's not all wine and roses, though. My bullish play on $XDE didn't work out at all, since the dollar's strength only intensified (as I remarked in a prior post, I am a dollar bull, mainly because I think interest rates are about to shoot higher – – hence my bearish play on $UTIL).
The new opportunity to get puts on agricultural/energy momentum stocks definitely re-appeared, and here are a few favorites.
I say again, I am really amazed at the dollar's strength. Maybe people can visit Europe again some day at reasonable prices!
