This week might as well not have happened. In spite of four out of five days producing nearly or greater than 200 point changes on the Dow 30, the week basically ended flat. It was a huge amount of smoke and absolutely no fire.
However, this upcoming Monday is the day when a great many people whom I respect think the "big turn" is going to take place. Don't take my intrigued interest in their opinion as an endorsement. Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't. Lord knows that watching the Russell today – – which, blast it, actually ended up in the green! – – was exasperating. But nothing aligns better with the future I foresee than the superb charts being produced these days by Elliott Wave International, one of which is shown here:
My stop on the Russell at 726.27 is set in stone. A violation of this would be both confusing and disappointing. Simply stated, next week needs to be down, and it needs to be down hard, in order to align with my hypothesis. It'll also make for a much more jovial Tim in Las Vegas.
From the "beat a dead horse" category, I bring you again the $UTIL. This is one of the finest head and shoulders patterns I have ever witnessed. Assuming a neckline break, which is virtually a foregone conclusion, I have almost no doubt in my mind that the $UTIL will fall another 20% from the 15% it has already shed. I bought a ton of SDP today to back this point of view.
I stand behind my notion that both energy and indexes are going to fall.
I've got a large quantity of positions, almost all of them puts (the rest shorts). Here are a few favorites……..
MOS (and POT, for that matter) are taking a very long time to bake. It's like watching paint dry. But if and when the bear market in these issues comes, my puts will go up hundreds of percent.
I have BAC on a very tight leash. It can't push past this week's highs, or else I'm out of there.
I was pleased with CME's nearly 30 point drop today. I'm looking for this to head over 100 points lower from here.
In spite of the recent strength in energy, I think there are plenty of opportunities to reload. I did so a couple of days ago, and JRCC did nicely today.
Praxair (PX) is a new position for me; I don't think I've ever traded this one before.
I bought RIMM puts yesterday based on the fact it has retraced to the underside of its broken trendline.
Steel companies are doing well for me, and SCHN is probably my favorite among them.
WLT has a nice double top in place.
One of my straight short positions is BDX.
With all these fine ideas, how about you good folks offer up a few of your best ideas of your own in the comments section? Pay a little back to me and your fellow readers, eh?
And I will close with this clip of Leonard Nimoy in the opening credits to a television show called Baffled! which – understandably – never saw the light of day.
