I read with great interest the latest report from Elliott Wave International. I know there are varying degrees of skepticism here about EWT, but I find it fascinating, and the reports from this firm are well-articulated. Some of the highlights from their latest report postulate that:
- We've got about 8 years of general bear market (both commodities and equities) ahead of us, with an "idea" bottom for commodities in 2013, for stocks (in nominal terms) 2014, and for stocks (in real dollar terms) in 2016.
- In those eight years, they project an economic slump more substantial than the Great Depression (I imagine people would take great issue with this point in particular).
- The crude oil market is in the midst of its final swing up, with a projected ultimate high between $160 and $189 per barrel.
In the broadest terms, the notion of a bear market until about 2014 has been the theme I've been working with. The dream, of course, would be to amass ample profits in the course of that bear market and be ready to convert into a (gasp) mega-bull in 2015 or so.
Eight years is one thing, and one day is quite another. And what a good day it was! As has become the norm lately, the day started off kind of bad, but things shored up, slipped down, and caught fire. I had a terrific and very profitable day in the markets, and my level of activity (that is, trading) was just about zero. That's how it should be.
All eyes have been on Lehman (LEH) lately, as it plunges to amazing new lows. The broader Broker/Dealer index is getting pretty close to its mid-March nadir, where BSC got blown into oblivion.
The Transports, which had been a source of worry for me even just a week ago, is fading fast as a point of concern.
I've got a relatively small put position on the NASDAQ market, and it is doing nicely. We seem to be in the clear on the $COMPQ for at least another 75 points.
As for the $NDX, the break beneath that trendline was prescient.
I used to trade the Russell constantly, but I've taken a break. This chart is getting so compelling that I might re-enter this market. This chart has broken down very nicely.
The one big index position I do have, puts on the S&P, is doing great. I think it would take a pretty big disaster to push it to new lows for the year. I'm holding out for the upper 1200s.
I just bought some SRS today in my IRA.
My COH position, which is ancient (weeks old!) for me, continues to do great.
I also like how DECK is finally starting to break down. Just like their product, bulls on this stock must be saying UGG!
AMLN is also moving swiftly away from its resistance line.
My puts on GOOG are doing great, and I'd start taking profits on this around $500. A big blow-up in the market would make me finish taking profits around $425.
Of the four horseman, I've got either puts or shorts on all four. RIMM is slipping away from what would have been a bullish breakout.
My old buddy ATI is also doing well, and I'm happy to wait a long time for this trade to fully mature.
CHTT is on its way to what I'm projecting is a much, much lower price.
I shorted HBC a few days ago, so far with good results.
And JNPR did very well; I think I'd close this one up in the low 20s.
By the way, take a look at a month-old post here to understand how fun my "smart charts" can be given some time. When you click the Present tab, you'll see how the stock or index has changed since the post.
And, with that, I'll leave you with a message from Spock.
