Today was a pretty good day. Ninety minutes before the close, it was a really good day. However, IWM and OIH recovered to some degree. In spite of that, we still whacked over 100 points off the Dow 30 and enjoyed a decent drop in oil-related items. So I'm not complaining.
I've removed the "intra-Fib" retracements on the IWM, since I'm frankly not sure where they belong. I'd rather not be basing decisions on levels I'm not positive are valid. So we remain between the very broad ~64 to ~72 range on the IWM, somewhat near the upper range. We had a drop today on the best volume we've seen in about a month. It goes without saying that we need to stay below last Friday's highs to have a prayer in this market.
The Dow dropped away from the psychologically important 13,000 level. I've drawn a red line at 12,900 which seems to be the neckline (as it were) for this pattern. There's a heck of a lot of support between 11,800 and 12,800 – – a thousand points is a lot to chop through.
I've expressed concern several times about the Transports. This pattern isn't exactly acting like a launching point. It's still intact, but a drop beneath about 4,800 would render it impotent.
The NASDAQ Composite (which is going to get affected strongly after tomorrow's AAPL earnings) is likewise beneath its ~2,420 horizontal line. We've also got the advantage of being at the upper end of that channel you see.
I confess to being obsessed with OIH these days. In spite of a record close (yet again) for crude oil, we actually fell more than a percentage point here. As you can see, OIH is a good 40 points above any really serious support. But, God almighty, this thing has a lot of bulls behind it.
I've got a decent-sized position on the Russell 2000 (and the NASDAQ 100) indexes. Around 725 or so is the extremely important line in the sand.
There are plenty of stocks which are tempting to short simply because they are really "expensive." I put that in quotes, because shorting these momentum plays is dangerous. I have done it in a few cases, but usually I'm a little sensible and avoid stuff like CLF….
…….and PBR. All the same, I wouldn't be surprised (one day, one day) to see these get crushed. They could remain in a full bull pattern, but even a "easing back" to the trendline could blow 30% to 40% off of these.
I did buy puts in NLY. I usually don't go for such cheap stocks, but this one is pretty alluring.
I've also got puts in APA. It's dangerous, of course, but there's got to be a falling-away from these bands sometime soon.
AAPL had a nice down day, but a GOOG-like event after tomorrow's close would knock these out. We'll see.
I like my BHI puts a lot, not only due to the Bollinger Bands, but also due to that trendline retracement.
XEC is another nutty momentum one. I didn't say I was immune to pursuing these. I just try to keep them from being all my positions!
If CNX fell to sometime like $70, I'd probably close it. But that's still 15 points away.
First Solar (FSLR) is above $300, but I'm staying away. Its pattern is still plausibly bullish. Its cousin, though, SPWR, looks far more vulnerable.
Finally, my holding with GENZ did pretty well today. This pattern continues to shape up.
I will be traveling on business over the next 30 hours from this writing, so posts will be less frequent (and comments near non-existent). Be strong!
