Greetings from the airport. I got up at 4 this morning (actually, in my typical fashion, I woke up at 3, since I get anxious about oversleeping), and I was pleased to see the market continuing to move in a systematic, stair-step fashion. Yes, we had yet another “there will no war, yayyy!” rally (see green rounded rectangle below), but this is within the context of the steady drumbeat lower that I’ve highlighted with red circles.
As for that “pop’ last night, which sent the ES roaring higher, I agree with Atilla – – – this is just the 2022 version of the pathetic “China talks are going well” that we went through in, what was is, 2018 or something? Remember how stupid that was? Day after day, we’d be told about how trade talks were going “well”, and as I predicted throughout the entire ordeal, none of it mattered DICK. Do you think any good came of it? One scintilla? No? Zero. Well, you’re right. You make good decisions. Which is why on think it was a pointless waste of political time.
Another politically-driven bit of nonsense is crude oil, and I remain quite pleased that my sheepish “this is the top” post from Wednesday morning seems to have been well-placed. Keep in mind, these slippery slope is with the background of war-any-moment-now.
What’s interesting to see is how many household name stocks have lost 50/%, 60%, 70%, or 90% of their value – – – all in the context of a market that was at lifetime highs only days ago. I mean, come on, Facebook is the bluest of the blue chips, and it’s down almost 50%. Last night’s disaster, ROKU, whose success I’ve never understood, got nuked once more. Suffice it to say, the AAPL and MSFTs of the world, which have been propping up this astronomically-overvalued joke of a market, can’t keep the kabuki up forever. One by one, stocks are failing, and at some point the entire structure is going to collapse in a fantastic, making-Tim-smile heap of smoldering ruins.
What I’ve noticed, however, is how MAD the bulls are starting to get. To be completely succinct about this, bulls are acting the way I was acting in early 2010. That is, frustrated, angry, upset, and confused. This is just the beginning, though. I suspect that a year from now, the Cathie Woods of the world will be confined to lunatic asylums out of concern for their own safety.
In December, a mere two months ago, Cathie (which is our modern-day version of Mary Meeker) was trying to quell the concerns of her long-suffering investors by saying that tech stocks were in “deep value” territory. That was, even now, trillions of dollars ago.
So after the nuclear bombs that have been dropping on tech stocks, what does Cathie have to say for herself? An apology? Embarrassment? A bold declaration that she has, in fact, gone entirely short, since she wants to do her job and make investors a profit?
Nope.
So, evidently what she’s learned over the past two months is that tech stocks have gone from “deep value” to “way undervalued“. You’re welcome.
Today is a dreadfully busy day for me, so you will not be spoiled by the normal firehose of content I so generously provide on a regular basis. I’ll throw you some infographic comment cleaners from time to time, but I won’t be firing on all four cylinders again until Sunday morning.
