Biffermas's "Grandma" stock picking contest and his reaction/ connotation that options were a bit racy kinda got me thinking…
Generally I prefer to forgo
the “ownership experience” and pretty much stick with an associated
option. Often misaligned and frequently misused, options were (this
is a recording) actually invented to control risk. But here’s how
Grandma might do it:
Let’s say PFE opens Monday
at today’s closing tick and the old lady buys 1000 shares @ $19.47
total cost $19,470.
After many years in the market
Grandma has a few cast-in-stone rules; one is to never let a stock run
more than 10% against her. Since she doesn’t like stop loss orders
she’ll purchase 10 PFE Jan 2011 $17.50 puts @ $1.40 total cost $1400.
Grandma has defined her risk at 10% (give or take, roll with me on this please).
The puts for insurance were
$1400. PFE pays 3.70% dividend which comes to about $720. So if PFE
goes nowhere this year (certainly possible) this trade’s still a $680
loser. To counter, our geriatric derivative wizard sells 10 out of the money
(OTM) February 20 calls, about 2.7% OTM, @ .30 for a credit of $300.
Here’s how this year might pan out:
Grandma collects $300.00 x
12 months for $3600 selling OTM calls. Minus the remaining $680 bill
for those puts= $2950 or about 15% return on her original investment.
Not bad…
-or-
Grandma’s PFE gets called
away every month. She’s made the $300 call premium plus the $530 difference
from her original purchase and the strike price that she “loses”
her stock. And she reloads to do it all again. Here’s the math $300
call premium + $530 stock appreciation= $830 x 12 months= $9960 or 51%
on her original investment. Tasty.
-or-
Some combo of the above.
-or-
Trade is complete and utter
failure. PFE falls into the abyss (we’re talking the largest heathcare/
drug manufacturer in the US here) Grandma loses the spread between purchase
price and put insurance floor, plus the price of that insurance for
a total of $3390 less the est call premium collected for 12 months $3600=
no loss? Yep.
Yes they’ll be commissions.
Yes these numbers are “today’s”
numbers and we don’t know what future premiums will be. On the other
hand (without launching into the Greeks) there’s certainly a good
probability premiums will become higher as the year progresses– then tasty becomes downright sweet!