Amazon Puts Tesla on Notice

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Amazon just put Tesla on notice. Last month, Amazon announced a surprising new blockbuster acquisition: It’s buying Zoox – a self-driving car startup – for $1.2 billion.

Amazon’s surprising move got the full attention of Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Immediately after the deal, he jokingly called Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos a “copycat.”

Amazon acquired Zoox for its crown jewel: its top-shelf computer vision technologyComputer vision is one of today’s biggest moneymaking opportunities.

In short, cutting-edge computers can now “see” and process visual information better than a human can. This is a game-changing foundational technology in the same way the PC, smartphone, and internet were foundational technologies.

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Cooking the Books

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This month’s blog is a little different — it’s co-written with my friend Marc Rubinstein. Marc is a highly talented analyst, ex Lansdowne Partners anmd writes a terrific blog on banks and financials which you should definitely subscribe to. Marc also is the tutor on our Banks Sector Course. In this blog, where he did all the hard work and write some more elegant prose than is customary in tehse pages, we take a look at Greensill, on paper one of the most valuable fintechs in Europe. What a story! It’s got it all: a Softbank angle, a BaFin angle (remember Wirecard last week?), a human interest angle (farmer turns billionaire) an element of financial engineering, and of course an accounting red flag issue.

New asset classes pop up all the time. Some, like common stocks, hit the big time; others fizzle out. What makes some asset classes durable and others a flash-in-the-pan is an interesting question.

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Asset Managers and the SBA

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The Small Business Association’s (SBA)’s Payroll Protection Program (PPP) handed out loans to small businesses, but it isn’t just small businesses getting the loans. Criticism of the program continues as officials released details on hundreds of thousands of businesses that received PPP loans from the SBA, many of which will be forgivable.
The Payroll Protection Program was designed to bail out small businesses impacted by the pandemic, but many firms that took the bailout money weren’t impacted by the pandemic.

The SBA’s PPP loans were supposed to be for small businesses that had to shut down during the pandemic. However, many large businesses, including asset management firms that didn’t actually shut down, are taking the loans.

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Longest TSLA Bear Post Ever

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Stanphyl Capital letter to investors for the month ended June 30, 2020, discussing their short thesis for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA).

For June 2020 the fund was down 3.9% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up 2.0% while the Russell 2000 was up 3.5%. Year-to-date 2020 the fund is down 7.0% while the S&P 500 is down 3.1% and the Russell 2000 is down 13.0%. Since inception on June 1, 2011 the fund is up 43.0% net while the S&P 500 is up 178.6% and the Russell 2000 is up 93.0%. Since inception the fund has compounded at 4.0% net annually vs 11.9% for the S&P 500 and 7.5% for the Russell 2000.  (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends. The fund’s performance results are approximate; investors will receive exact figures from the outside administrator within a week or two. Please note that individual partners’ returns will vary in accordance with their high-water marks.)

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FICC Short Gamma

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One firm rakes more money trading energy in three-months then this entire industry 90th percentile in one year, it’s Goldman Sachs. For us Goldman FICC unmitigated success in the energy is the ultimate expression of the systemic dollar-at-risk entrenched in the long-gamma commodity firms and trade finance world.

Goldman’s Model

Goldman banks/deals with the solid counterparty, manage their risks, and then trade the insights 1/4 sec ahead of the earnings or physical in the finish line.

Goldman uses few or no working-capital.

Goldman commodity traders raked in $1 billion after positioning for april’s oil market collapse from Simon Jacques

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