Freaky Friday

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I was up again early this morning, just to be fully prepared for the day ahead. Equity futures have been down pretty hard all through the night, with the S&P down about 20 points as of this writing (90 minutes before the opening bell). It was only a week ago today that the same market was up about 60 points based on the excitement over taxpayers getting saddled with a trillion dollars in debt to forgive Wall Street's misdeeds. Time and events sure do move fast in these markets.

In fact, that swift movement is probably is what is making things so interesting right now. Congress, bless its heart, chose not to rubber-stamp a 2.5 page memo handing the reigns of the country over to Paulson. So now it's a game of chicken. On one side you're going to continue to hear the breathless warnings about how the economy will collapse into a protracted recession unless the plan is passed; and on the other, you will have those who want to consider alternatives first (while nervously eyeing daily events, such as the collapse of the largest S&L in history last evening).

Comments reflect the rapid deterioration in focus. We used to talk about individual stock picks; then we started talking about politics (since that dwarfs earnings these days in driving stock prices, RIMM notwithstanding); and now we're talking about what kind of containers can be purchased at Target to store cash. I'm just waiting for folks to break out in discussion about the right ammo to buy.

The challenge, as always, on mornings like this is whether to take profits or let things run. I am feeling very good about the positions I am in, so I have no intention of making an exit. I have only one index position (70 in-the-money November puts on SPY) and perhaps I'll sell 20 of those early just to take some profits off the table. Anyway, I'm going to take advantage of my early awakening and read the paper. Good morning to you all.

Implication Assimilation

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We've gotten to the point that things are moving so fast that people are unable to assess what it means (at least I'm not, anyway…..) Every day something gigantic happens. I was just reading how, as of last night, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are no longer investment banks, but simply "banks," thus, according to the article, "ending an era on Wall Street."

It's sort of like explaining my pup's breed to people. "He doesn't have fur, he has hair."  And that's true. But it takes a bit to explain what the really means, and even I don't really understand what the difference is.

Looking at the pre-market (a couple of hours before the opening bell), the summary seems to be "oil and gold up big, equities down a little." One can at least conclude that the world has ascertained the U.S. dollar isn't exactly the most splendid place to be investing these days.

Trio of Federal Assistance

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A glance at MarketWatch this morning tells you all you need to know about the new United Socialists of America……..

So, in one glance, we have:

  • The assumption of trillions of dollars of risk by the Treasury in order to protect FNM and FRE (whose senior management make millions in salary every year)
  • The broadening of "emergency" loans by the Federal Reserve
  • The banning of short-selling on many widely-traded stocks by the Securities and Exchange Commission (with another "emergency" order)

Perhaps high school civics classes should be changed to courses like Learning Parts of the Federal Government Vis a Vis Bullish Crutches. This is all ultimately going to be just as effective as the umpteen other things the U.S. has done to prop things up since last July. It's amazing what happens when you get a Wall Street insider running the controls, helping all his drinking buddies out back in Manhattan.