Back in the Saddle

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I'm back in my beloved Palo Alto and ready for a new week (without holiday interruption!)

Dubai's pledge to pour in however many tens of billions of dollars are required to shore things up has had a rather temporary effect. The /ES is up precisely zero points as I am typing this, having been up more than seven earlier. And, as I grab a bite of breakfast, I shall share with you an amusing notion that popped into my head this morning from an Accenture advertisement I remember seeing………..

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Golden Slumbers

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Well, the crickets are chirping here in Palo Alto, the sun set long ago, and you lunatics are still filling up the comments section on my Sunday morning post. So I'll freshen the place up a bit before I go to bed.

Far and away my largest short position is in gold. I shorted a honkin' big block of GLD above $100 last week. Glancing at @GCZ9 trading, gold is down nearly $8 right now. My fifth largest position – and it's still a big one – is the ultrabearish on gold DZZ fund. So, it should be obvious, I'm a precious metals bear.

I like being a contrarian. And about the most "contrary" thing you can do these days is to be short gold. Everybody and his brother is convinced gold is going to be at $1300 in no time (based on a complete misinterpretation of the chart pattern), and some of the real tin-foil hat types are looking for gold to be at $5,000/ounce soon. Pffft.

I even saw one prominently-featured comment on MarketWatch's home page a week ago where a guy said "Gold is now four digits. Soon it will be five. Then six. Then seven. You do the math." The only math I need to do is to find out how many milligrams of LSD that guy dropped.

As a swing trade, I'll probably take my profits when gold gets to $970 or so, but I'll just wait for a bounce and short it again.

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Books I’ve Written

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Chart Your Way to Profits - Second Edition

Technical analysis is the study of past price movement for the purpose of predicting future price movement. If done correctly, it can lead to substantial trading profits. But making money in the market isn’t easy. No one knows this better than author Tim Knight, who has been charting and trading the financial markets for more than twenty years. The company he founded, Prophet Financial Systems (now owned by TD Ameritrade), was ranked for years as the number-one site for technical analysis by both Barron’s and Forbes.

In the first edition of Chart Your Way to Profits, Knight showed how to use the powerful technology available online in conjunction with technical analysis to analyze markets and make the most profitable trading decisions possible. Now, in this revised Second Edition, he offers many new technical tools for tracking individual stocks and also shows you how to use ProphetCharts® to do advanced intermarket technical studies to identify the best opportunities.

Written in a straightforward and accessible manner, Chart Your Way to Profits, Second Edition introduces the ProphetCharts® application (accessible to anyone with Internet access and an account), which allows you to perform your own analysis with the help of hundreds of real-world examples. Along the way, you’ll also become familiar with some of the most important rules of sound trading. The author examines a variety of chart types, highlights essential indicators, explores numerous analysis methods, and offers a wealth of in-depth insight and practical advice throughout the book.

No matter what you trade, technical analysis can make you a better and more profitable trader. Price charts will consistently provide the most complete representation of the supply and demand behind any financial instrument because everything that can be publicly known or speculated is already built into the graph. Through the ups and downs of financial markets, technical criteria and charting allow traders to be completely objective in their assessment of price action, while leaving emotion out of the decision-making process. Chart Your Way to Profits, Second Edition can help you do the same, as it shows you how to combine technical analysis with powerful online tools to achieve trading success.

The hyperlink above will send you to Amazon. If you’d prefer to get a signed book directly from me, just sent a $75 payment via PayPal to trader.tim.knight@gmail.com or mail a check to Tim Knight 555 Bryant #711 Palo Alto CA 94301. If you are outside the United States, please include an additional $10 to cover the extra shipping fees.

The Slope of Hope Bathroom Reader

0904-bathroom Please note there is also a new book directly from Slope’s archives which can be purchased here. You can read the reviews about the book here. Check it out!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High Probability Trade Setups

A key element of trading is identifying situations in the financial markets that can produce a profitable trade. Fundamental analysts search for situations where a stock is undervalued or if a stock’s prospective earnings growth is underestimated by a majority of investors. Technical analysts look at patterns in the market that historically indicate the direction of the markets next move. High Probability Trade Set-Ups catalogs the best trading situations from a variety of technical approaches.

Engaging and informative, High Probability Trade Set-Ups provides a detailed explanation of twenty powerful, recurring tradable situations in the financial markets. Each pattern is thoroughly described, including its strengths and drawbacks, ease of identification, and the degree to which it produces profitable trades. Most importantly, the author provides entry and exit points for each set up. Examples of the set-ups include chart patterns such as ascending triangles, diamonds, gaps, pennants, and channels.

  • * Features many new technical tools for tracking individual stocks
  • * Contains a resource guide, which will help to monitor the market for the trade set-ups discussed throughout the book
  • * Reveals how to use ProphetCharts to perform advanced intermarket technical studies and identify the best opportunities

Written in a straightforward and accessible style, High Probability Trade Set-Ups covers a lot of ground with respect to this approach and shows you how to use it to make the most of your time in today’s dynamic markets.

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Contact Me

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I adore my readers (well, most of them, anyway), and I’d love to hear from you. My mailing address is 555 Bryant Street # 711, Palo Alto, CA 94301.

If you want to email me, you can send a note to my Gmail account, but please do not ask for advice of any kind. I will not offer any opinions about anything to any individual (although if you have an idea you’d like to share with me, I’m all ears). By “advice”, this includes stop prices, market direction, whether I’m long or short something, what color I think the sky is, etc. I will not respond to anything asking for any opinion on any particular investment or technique. I hate to be rude about it, but so many people have ignored softer warnings that I had to kick it up a notch.

Realitive Strength

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A good friend of mine (who is also a Sloper and a successful real estate developer here in Palo Alto) sent me an cool little quartet of graphs this morning:

This is probably only interesting to you if you actually live in Palo Alto, but I think the insight is this: the degree to which all the "fluff" in real estate investing ("fluff" meaning teaser rates, liar loans, subprime, etc.) affected various local markets was far from homogeneous. A place as unfortunate as Stockton (which epitomizes the famed Gertrude Stein quote about Oakland) really has no business zooming up in value. Thus, once the artificial impetus was gone, the appreciation disappeared as well.

My beloved Palo Alto, on the other hand, actually has some meaningful things that people will pay handsomely for (the great weather, Stanford University, marvelous little downtown, and a good chance to live next door to friendly, doe-eyed bloggers). So the dip has been quite muted, bordering on non-existent.