Pretty nasty day out there so far for the bears! And my oil-related positions have been taking a drubbing.
My largest one, OIH, is the one I watch most closely. My stop on this is $195, which was the all-time high set back on January 3 of this year.
The risk is that OIH does a repeat of what it did back in 2006 and early 2007. There was a bearish looking pattern (blue tint), a bounce and subsequent drop (the yellow tint), and then an explosion higher to new highs (the magenta tint). I've repeated these tints for the late 2007 to present period. Of course, the magenta period for the present is conjectural at this point, and naturally if it fulfills, I'll be blown out of my OIH puts with a fat loss.
Also in the world of energy, the solars are going bananas. I don't trade these, either long or short, simply because I don't find their charts particularly interesting. But there's no doubt this sector, of which FSLR appears to be the king has made a lot of bulls some money.
The IWM continues its march to the high end of its 2008 range. Somewhat distressing. This is either a fantastic put-buying opportunity or the final set-up before the bulls blast the market higher. Would be nice to know which of those was about to materialize, wouldn't it?
