Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

May Fools

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What a week. I'm glad it's over. Technical problems. Stocks-that-should-not-be-named blowing up. Surges in equity prices. A return of the bubble-headed bulls. Widespread celebration that the microscopic bear market the world has "endured" is over.

To top it off, I took my CMT Exam, and it seems like 40% of the questions were about point and figure charts. Huh? Does anyone actually use these things? I suspect whoever put the test together has as much an obsession with P&F as I do with Fibonaccis.

How many of the 120 questions dealt with actual technical patterns? Zero. You read me right. None. Although, thank heavens, there were three questions about analyzing cash holding levels at mutual fund companies. God almighty. Plus the pitiful souls that ran the testing center had their monitors all set to a 60mhz refresh rate, since I suppose they just don't know any better. My success story was that my eyes didn't start bleeding.

And what about my trading today? I bought puts like crazy. If the patterns pan out, there were bargains galore everywhere.

But the next time we encounter a low like we did in mid-March, would someone please remind me to go 100% into cash and wait for the VIX to get down to 18 again, like it did today? Because the last seven weeks have been a complete waste of time and treasure.

Stay Awake While I Pray

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Today started out terribly. And, as I type this, there are two and a half hours to go.

But the cold fact of that matter is that all the tremendous gains the indexes enjoyed at the opening bell have evaporated. Where shall we end today? A loss on some of the major indexes would be a welcome sight, to be sure. We'll see where it winds up. And the reason it's so important is that there are few things better for my shipmates than a failed bullish breakout.

As of this writing, the S&P is sporting a tremendous shooting star. Of course, the candle isn't worthy of interpretation until the close.

I've been incessantly warning about the potential breakout of the IWM. Well, the breakout has happened. It is history. But will it generate a bullish movement upward? It sure did in the first moments of the day. But, since then, the bull's car has had nothing but water in it. It wants to move, but it's not budging.

I offer the following charts without commentary (since I haven't the time). But here are my favorites right now.

Failed Breakout?

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Beloved Readers………

There's a lot going on, but I will put together something soon.

You have honored me all these months with taking time to be here on Slope, and I want to apologize for being so distracted lately.

There are some very interesting things going on in the market, and I hope to comment on them very soon. I'm not convinced the bear's back is broken. Mine certainly isn't. 

OIH Vey

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Well, thank God for oil.

The plunge in OIH and related companies was the only thing they kept things decent for me today. My NDX and QQQQ puts – – fat with profits yesterday – – were closed out with a loss, thanks to the explosion higher in those markets. I bailed out of my RUT puts as well, given the ungodly terrifying pattern that has shaped up on an intraday basis. All in all, the day was a wash, but it would have been a disaster were it not for the plunge in oil.

The market's strength pushed complacency and the $VIX down to new 2008 lows. We are approaching the levels seen last Christmas, when the market was extremely strong. It's amazing, but the VIX is half its value from its January peaks. Boy, those were the days, weren't they?

The tinted area of the Russell shown below is, to my eyes, very, very, very dangerous. Friday morning's employment figures will give it some direction, of course. But it could be a disaster.

With all my worrying, someone sent me an email today asking, "whose side are you on?" I'm on the side of profits. I'm on the side of minimizing losses. No one is going to pay me to be a permabear.

One pattern that I've mentioned repeatedly which had formerly given me comfort was $MSH. Well, that neckline got sliced today. I suppose one could nudge the neckline higher, but I really don't like cheating my charts. 

The S&P 100 is butting right up against its Fibonacci retracement level. Of course, it could slice right through this tomorrow, just like the $MSH cut through its neckline today.

Even more perilous is the S&P 500, which is banging up against a variety of technical lines. In addition, most of the Elliott Wave stuff I've been reading has declared 1,410 as a line in the sand for S&P, so this is a very dangerous time for this index too.

Lastly, I beefed up my short positions on China today. I am anticipated a softening in this market soon.

Today was pretty rough for me, both with the indexes zooming higher (in spite of yesterday's miniature victory!) and all kinds of technical troubles here at the office. I sure hope Friday is better on all fronts.