First published Sat Sep 10 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: The market action this past week started out quite strong, and raised many hopes. However, since I do not have a clear 5 wave structure confidently developed off the recent lows, I have to put hopes aside, and view the market in a dispassionate manner. And, that dispassionate manner sees strong potential for another drop in the complex.
Last week, I noted that I can become aggressively bullish again should we see a clear 5 wave structure complete off the recent lows. While I can make a colorful attempt at classifying the recent rally in the metals complex as a 5 wave structure, I have to be honest in my analysis and state that, to me, it did not look like a clear 5 wave structure. So, the immediate bullish count will only be an alternative to me at this time, which the market will have to prove to me.
That means I have moved into the current market action representing a wave ii in the larger GDX count, whereas silver and gold still seem to present as a wave 2 in wave iii. However, should the GDX be able to strongly break out impulsively over the recent highs, then I will view everything in the heart of a wave iii higher. This is my simplified perspective.
