Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Many investors maintain beliefs about the stock market which often have them looking the wrong way at the market turns. In fact, I can no longer count how many comments I see about how the Fed is what directs our stock market action, and it just makes me scratch my head.
The main argument by Fed watchers is that the Fed’s easy money drives the stock market. Yet, the Fed’s balance sheet peaked at $4.52 trillion in January of 2015 and is down over 12% from that peak. Yet the stock market has added over 40% since the Fed’s balance sheet peaked. Remember how often we were told by the Fed watchers that a shrinking Fed balance sheet would lead to a stock market crash? Well, it certainly did, but not in the direction most expected.
There is an old Yiddish expression called a bubbe meise (pronounced my-seh). I guess the closest English interpretation of this expression would be a grandmother’s tale, or in the common vernacular, an old-wives’ tale.
Of late, I am seeing a bubbe meise about the importance of central bank buying of gold, and it is making its rounds on websites all over the internet.
We have been hearing for many years about how gold is supposed to soar because countries and central banks are buying the precious metal. Most of the fundamentalists in this market are convinced that this is a bullish signal. In fact, one article I read explained that central bank buying “is significant, as central banks are the ‘smart money’ given their influence on global economics and access to non-public information.” (more…)
Preface from Tim: in case it’s not screamingly obvious, I did not write the following post (the prediction that we’re going to at least 3200 on the S&P 500 will be your first hint). Still, I wanted to share Avi’s perspective:
There is an old adage in the market which says that “everyone is a genius in a bull market.” What that really means is that as long as you keep looking to the long side in a bull market, you will be seen as a genius.
But, remember, one of the main perquisites for maintaining “genius” status is that we must be in a “bull market.” So, how do you know when a bull market is coming to an end?
Some time has passed since I wrote a more lengthy article, but not nearly as long a time as this gruelling bear market in cryptos – now 12 months long, and counting. So, in this article I’d like to rewind the clock a bit.
When we first saw our bull market top in cryptos, I did not fully expect a long bear market such as we’ve seen. While the March breakdown confirmed in my mind that the $3000 to $4700 zone would be visited again, I did not think it would take this long.
As many of you know, I will often read articles written by others — along with the comments — to gauge the overall sentiment of the market from an anecdotal perspective. During one of my recent perusals of articles, I noticed a quote of the following statement by Sir John Templeton:
“For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark 70’s, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.
“There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But, over time, our studies indicate stocks do go up. As national economies become more integrated and interdependent, as communication becomes easier and cheaper, business is likely to boom. Trade and travel will grow. Wealth will increase. And stock prices should rise accordingly.” (more…)