Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Is It Time To Just Sell All Your Gold?

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For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD.

While I have gone on record as to why I do not think GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I still use it to track the market movements. For those that have not seen my webinar about why I don’t think the GLD is a wise long-term investment, feel free to review this link for my webinar on the matter.

Now, to answer the question I presented in the title to my article, I will simply say HECK NO! In fact, now is the time you want to be setting up your long positions, as we have a reasonably low-risk set up presented before us.

Over a week ago, I wrote my most recent public article on GLD, wherein I presented my general perspective, which was outlined in much more detail to our members, with specific charts:

“As long as the GLD remains below 126, I still see the potential for it to test the 122/123 region.” 

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Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos?

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Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos?

By Ryan Wilday, ElliottWaveTrader

Since leaving my job as a corporate design manager to analyze and trade cryptos (among other things), I’ve gained new attention from old colleagues. In circles of my former profession, I’m the guy that retired to trade for a living. While my departure from corporate life was something I planned for many years, cryptos certainly gave those plans a shot in the arm.

Regardless of how it came about, my early ‘retirement’ carries some lore; ‘He must have made millions on Bitcoin’ I’m sure some say. (more…)

We FINALLY Got Our Pullback In GLD

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We FINALLY Got Our Pullback In GLD

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published on Wed May 16 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  As the title notes, we are finally getting that 5th wave down in the GLD after weeks of meandering. Moreover, not only are we getting that 5th wave down, the 3rd wave within this 5th wave down extended beyond the 3.618 extension of waves i and ii down.  And, such a strong extension is certainly doing its job in getting even more people souring on this complex.

Moreover, as I am reading out there in the blog-world, it seems many are turning quite negative with gold breaking below its 200DMA.  Clearly, this is EXACTLY what we want to see to strike a bottom in the complex.

As you can see from the daily chart, the RSI has dropped down to the levels from which all prior rallies have begun.  Furthermore, the GLD is now below its daily Bollinger band, yet the MACD on the daily chart is providing us the positive divergences we want to see in this 5th wave of the c-wave of wave (2).

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Has The Market Crash Been Put On Hold Again?

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Last weekend, I wrote an article entitled “The Market Is Going To Crash.” The response to that article garnered over 55,000 hits on Seeking Alpha, which is about 4-5 times the reads that I normally get on a stock market update.

This gives me anecdotal insight into where the overall sentiment is in the market today. It seems most investors are leaning quite bearish, and are looking for articles that support their own bearish bias.

And, as I noted last weekend, I am sorry to disappoint all of you who have a bearish bias. You see, the market is likely going to be heading over 3000, and potentially even over the next 12 months.

While I am sure you were taken in with the common expectation that the President’s abandoning the Iranian deal was going to tank the market, it seems the market never got that memo. Yes, we have yet another reason the market has ignored while it continued to climb higher. At this point, you would think that investors would be used to this if they have been paying attention in 2016 and 2017.

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The Stock Market Is Going To Crash

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Well, everyone else has been calling for a market crash, so I thought maybe I should too. But, while I think the market will likely crash again, I don’t think it is going to happen just yet, as I still believe this bull market has several more years to run.

When I peruse the articles on Seeking Alpha, it seems to be en vogue today to be bearish. The headline articles discuss how the market has now moved into being a bear market, or that the VIX is about to skyrocket, or the market is overvalued, discussions of black swans, the impending debt crisis, etc.

Turn back the clock to early 2016 and 45% lower in the S&P500, and were we not reading the exact same articles?

And, of course, this time is certainly different. There are a whole new set of issues that we need to worry about, right?

I mean, are the issues with which we are now grappling much worse than what we faced back in 2016 and 2017 when the market saw one of its strongest rally in years?

Think about it. Are we dealing with anything worse than the cessation of QE, North Korean atomic threat, major terrorist attacks worldwide, Brexit, Frexit, Grexit, Trump election, rising interest rates, and many more I don’t even care to list.

Now, if you have been an active member of the market over the last several years, and you have not come to the realization that all these “issues” mattered not to the market as it continued to soar, then you have not been paying attention. All these issues are purely bearish noise which a prudent investor learns how to tune out. Rather, a prudent investor understands when this noise simply helps build that wall of worry which the market climbs.

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How Does A Crypto Analyst Make A Mistake And Still Make Over 265% Profit?

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Ryan Wilday is our newest analyst. When we found him, he had already been trading over two decades for a supplemental income, but without the Elliott Wave Theory. He was a quick study in the theory and soon was producing professionally accurate wave counts, according to our method- Fibonacci Pinball. Ryan was also an early adopter of cryptocurrency and trading the new asset class.

His life started to change in August 2017 when I brought him on staff at ElliottWave Trader to lead our cryptocurrency analysis team.

For the first few months, his new life was very quiet publicly, until he made a very timely call. In mid-October 2017, he made a call for STEEM, the currency of the Steemit social media site, to reach $5, perhaps by January 2018. The price at the time of his post was 92 cents.

A couple of guys from England — the hosts of the CryptoNights videoblog on Steemit — saw the post and interviewed him. This is where his work first came to public attention. While he’ll admit his timing was intuitive, he stood by the price target, which was an important Fibonacci level in his ElliottWave count for STEEM. STEEM first hit $5 on January 3, 2018. It moved on, topping at $9.24, before starting the correction we now find it in.

His original post is here, and you can see the CryptoNights videoblog interview here.

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The Fed May Not Be Raising Rates In The Second Half Of 2018

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Written by Elliott Wave Trader: For those that have followed the long-term bond market, you have likely seen many analysts attempting to call the top to the market.  And, many have even tried multiple times.  However, through the years, bonds continued to chug higher and high.

On June 27th, 2016, we sent out a major alert to our members at Elliottwavetrader.net entitled “Beware of Bonds Blowing Up.”  Yes, we took our turn in attempting to call a top to the bond market.  But, a little over a week later, the bond market struck its highs.  Since that time, TLT has dropped almost 20%.

Since Xenia Taoubina began providing her bond analysis to our members at Elliottwavetrader.net two years ago, her view has been that TLT was going to strike a significant high in 2016, and set up a large decline off that high. That’s exactly what we saw, followed by a nearly two year long decline in the price of bonds (rise in yields). (more…)