Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Yogi Berra was quoted as saying that “it’s tough making predictions, especially about the future.”
However, there are times when one is able to at least obtain a probabilistic reading about the future, based upon an understanding of mass human sentiment and human psychology.
In fact, back in the 1940’s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott identified behavioral patterns within the stock market which represented the larger collective behavioral patterns of society en masse. And, in 1940, Elliott publicly tied the movements of human behavior to the natural law represented through Fibonacci mathematics.
While reading of the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article. In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein.
I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is social mood which directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks. As Robert Prechter noted in a study he published in 2012 on this topic, “[s]ocionomic theory proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions.”
Originally published on Tues Nov 5 on ElliottWaveTrader.net: Oftentimes, you need to have patience when it comes to the metals. You see, while they move very quickly when they do move, the rest of the time they simply consolidate until they are ready for their next big move.
We have been waiting to see if the market is going to provide us that deeper pullback we wanted to see, and today seems to have triggered that potential. But, not all charts are showing the same degree of weakness.
Originally published on Sat Oct 19 on ElliottWaveTrader.net: With RGLD following through to the downside as expected in its c-wave decline, the question we are left with is if there is any more weakness to be expected in the metals complex before we begin the next major rally phase?
The simple answer is that while the patterns still suggest that a lower low can still be seen, it is not something I would be suggesting you trade for in an aggressive fashion.
By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
This market has been difficult for both the longs and the shorts for months now. While it has been unwilling to break down, it has also been equally unwilling to break out.
What makes me scratch my head even more of late is that the Fed has come to the table with its “not-really-QE-4” of $60 billion a month. For those that remember, QE1 was approximately $100 billion a month on average, QE2 was $75 billion, and QE3 was $85 billion. But, to see the Fed coming forth with this type of liquidity injection when the market is hovering just below its all-time highs is a bit surprising. Yet, the market is still unable to break out.
Preface from Tim Knight: just to be really clear, this is a contribution from an outside writer, and is neither my piece nor my opinion.
As the media highlights the potential impeachment process in the coming weeks, many are so concerned that this will be the “cause” of the market drop we are expecting. Yet, history suggests otherwise.
The narrative will certainly play out as follows: The market likes certainty and stability within our government. (Please ignore that this was the same reason many claimed that the market was going to crash if Trump was elected – yet we were pounding the table in expectations of a large rally). However, an impeachment proceeding places us into a very uncertain and unstable situation within our government. Therefore, the market will react negatively to that uncertainty.
Monday’s session showcased commitment from bulls as they defended against last week’s 2980.75 key range low support on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) with a double-bottom low at 2982 during Globex trading. Price remained above the daily 20 EMA in the 2970s as the whole range day ground slowly higher with higher lows and higher highs into the regular trading hours (RTH) closing print.
The main takeaway is that the smaller range of 2980-3025 is taking place within the overall 2955-3025 range of the past couple weeks. Everybody and their mother seems to be waiting for this high level consolidation/digestion to complete and for the move toward new all-time highs as we head into next Monday’s quarter end and into October.