Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Bulls Follow Through

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The first week of July was really about the upside following through based on the overall rounding bottoming pattern and temporary low setup at the 2693.25 low from the last week of June. The market was able to cement the status of temporary low from June, and had a decent “stick save” on Monday July 2 at the 2698.5 lows before closing at the high of the day around 2726 to cement another higher low.
Fast forward, the market tested the key 2740-area resistance for the 3rd or 4th time time later in the week, and was pretty much destined for the breakout like we expected. If you recall, the 2748 and 2758 prior highs level got blown out of the waters on Friday when the acceleration began since the bull train erased all doubts in the minds of traders. Overall, it was a fairly easy week because we’re definitely back in the aggressive BTFD (“buy the f’in dip”) regime as it worked very well for the majority of the week.

The main takeaway from this week was that the weekly candle was able to wrap up its bullish marching band at the highs and it’s a large bull bar. All the trapped bears and bull chasers are now in a vicious cycle on getting squeezed and rushing back into playing the game of BTFD as long as trending support holds for the immediate short-term play. (more…)

Trade Wars Good For The Market

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

If you read most of the analysis being published over the last two days, you would almost assume that the S&P500 should be crashing or be in a bear market. Yet, we are only 4% off the all-time highs struck early this year in the S&P, whereas the Nasdaq and Russell have made new higher highs this summer.

In fact, if you had read the analysis put out over the last two days when further tariffs went into effect, you would have to assume that Friday should have been a major down day in the US markets. This is just an excerpt from a bearish author’s recent article on the US market:

“Virtually all of the market headlines this week centered around the Friday imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on $34 billion in Chinese goods and the immediate reciprocation from Beijing. The duties kicked in at one minute after midnight and marked the most serious escalation yet in the burgeoning global trade war.”

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$545 Ether and $7045 Bitcoin Are Key Areas to Watch

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By Ryan Wilday, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Those key levels were $7075 and $505, the May 28 lows.

And, while it did bring bitcoin down hard, we’ve seen very little decline in ethereum. I had suggested in previous writings and on my Korelin Report discussions that we’ve seen some fledgling signs of decoupling in some alt coins from bitcoin movements since April. This is further evidence.

Not only did bitcoin break $7075 but plummeted a further 18% to $5770, while ethereum dropped only 14%. While this may seem like splitting hairs, this with the relative outperformance in ethereum since April is significant in my world. Ethereum is a higher beta asset than bitcoin. This means it normally moves farther in both directions. But not this time.

Also, when measured by Fibonacci extensions, it can still be said that ethereum may be holding on to a bullish, albeit tested setup. No chance in bitcoin. It is has already broken April and February lows. (more…)

This is It for Gold

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD.

While I have gone on record as to why I do not think GLD ETF is a wise long-term investment hold, I still use it to track the market movements. For those that have not seen my webinar about why I don’t think the GLD is a wise long-term investment, feel free to review this link for my webinar on the matter.

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The Conundrum Of The US Dollar

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

I am going to do a larger degree overview of the DXY, since I have not done one in while, and I have been getting a number of questions about it of late.  So, if you are following along, please take a look at the attached monthly chart, as I go through the progression of where I think we are in the larger degree time frames.

Back in 2011, we correctly saw the impending multi-year rally developing in the DXY, whereas most others were looking for the dollar to crash.  In fact, our target was 103.53, the 1.618 extension from the 73 region, which we exceeded by 29 cents before the market turned back down.  And, to put this market call into context, many of you may remember the certainty within the market that the dollar was going to crash due to all the QE thrown at it.  Yet, the exact opposite occurred, which clearly surprised most of the market . . . well . . . at least those who were not reading our analysis.

Initially, I had expected the turn down in the DXY from 103.53 to be a 4th wave, which would hold support at the 91.70 region, the 1.00 extension and common target for a 4th wave. However, when we exceeded that support to the downside, we then overlapped into what I was initially counting as wave 1 off the 2008 lows (now labeled as an a-wave), which then invalidated the standard impulsive structure I was tracking since that time.  This caused me to re-assess the entire structure since 2008, which has me viewing the larger structure now as a corrective rally into 103.82.

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Ethereum & Bitcoin: First Sign of Unravelling Cryptos

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By Ryan Wilday, ElliottWaveTrader.net
In articles starting in April I discussed the bullish impulse we had seen off the April lows for nearly every coin I track. And, I discussed how the lows on May 28 were testing levels that, if broken, threatened the continuation of that impulse.

Unfortunately, as of writing, those levels have broken. These levels were $7075 in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and $505 in ethereum (ETH-USD). And, while we have a few outliers in the cryptocurrency, most coins are following suit.

Is all lost?

While this can seem disastrous, especially for those with large holdings, I still believe we’ll see long-term support hold. In fact, most markets push bullish levels to the limit before bottoming, and I’ve seen it time and time again in the crypto market. This may be one of those times. But we must see.

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Is It 2016 Again For U.S. Equities, Emerging Markets And Gold?

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Bears seem to be roaming wherever you look, whether it be in the US equity market, the gold market, and especially in the emerging markets as of recently. Whether I read articles, or the comments to those articles, it seems there is a common expectation that “emerging market dominoes are falling” and it will “cause deleveraging and contagion” across portfolios worldwide.

It certainly sounds like a dire situation is developing in the world today. Does it not?

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Why $10,000 Gold Will Not Be What You Think

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

For almost 7 years now, I have been actively engaged in the online community relating to investing opportunities.  In fact, my first public article about a specific asset was when I called for a top in gold back in the summer of 2011, when most were certain we were about to easily eclipse the $2,000 mark.  However, my expectation was that the $1,915 region would likely put a cap to this rally, despite the parabolic rally we were experiencing in gold at the time.  And, as we now know, gold topped at $1,921 about a month after my top call.

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Bigger Bubble: Bitcoin Or The Stock Market?

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Bubbles in Nasdaq, bubbles in financial assets, bubbles in cryptos . . . bubbles are being reported everywhere. Moreover, more and more analysts are pointing to some financial crisis after another as each day goes by. Whether it is because of the cessation of QE, or because of the issues in Italy, or trade wars, etc., we are clearly not lacking for any reasons as to why this market should crash.

The problem is that most bubble-callers have no objective perspective through which they can determine that any market is in a bubble. As an example, one article I recently read suggests we are in a bubble in the Nasdaq because we have exceeded the 2000 bubble high in the market. Well, along those lines, maybe the Dow should not have exceeded the “bubble high” it struck in 1929!?

Now, I want to highlight the ultimate intellectual dishonesty and inconsistency in most of their thinking regarding bubbles. You see, many of these same analysts are looking for a massive rally in gold. Yet, one has to wonder why they can logically see gold rally well past its “bubble high” struck in 2011, but they are unable to accept any other market rallying beyond their “bubble highs” struck in recent history? I think one has to start viewing much of the analysis being published today as more emotionally-based rather than analytically-based.

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Here Is Next Week’s News In Advance

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Here Is Next Week’s News In Advance — How Will You Trade It?

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

The great majority of market participants believe that “the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics.”  So, if I share with you “secret” news that will hit the wires next week, you should be able to make a killing with such information.  Right?

While I strongly disagree with this proposition, at least based upon my in-depth study of decades of stock market history, this perspective is so engrained in the investment process of advisors and analysts alike that it is followed even more than the Bible.

So, let’s test this proposition. (more…)