Morning Check-In

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Howdy, people. Well, it’s an electrifying morning. as I’m typing this, the /ES is collapsing 0.04% and the /RTY is exploding higher by 0.06%. It’s even better than a weekend. In any case, the /ES has just been lumbering around, mercifully avoiding a breakout above that horizontal.

eswander

The bigger picture is absolutely unchanged. Tons of overhead supply acting as a barrier above, and an indecisive market below. Perhaps Thursday morning’s CPI will give it a jolt of shock so it actually does something.

espatt

One unusual item is crude oil, which is down (for a change) by 1.25%. Considering crude oil has gone up every day since LBJ announced he wouldn’t seek re-election, it sticks out.

crudemin

On a longer timeframe, though, it’s just a blip. My passion for energy bearishness has been evacuated, although I do have puts in APA…….but that’s seriously about it.

crudedai

As for my own positioning, I’m in 30 bearish positions with an average expiration date 115 days out, and I’m in 24% cash. I’m still feeling a bit too skittish to get aggressive.

slopechart SPX
S&P 500 with Fibonacci retracement anchored to recent extremes