At the end of any fantastic day (such as today), I always realize that I never expected it to turn out this way. Although I may be positioned properly, I never really see days like this coming. It's always a terrific feeling to be on the right side of the market, though. Would that more days felt like this!
But what's next? In a way, a day like today is easy. Once the market breaks in a given direction, the money just pours in. But how far will it go? Will this just be another one-hit wonder? Wednesday is a huge, huge day, after all, with both the GDP and the FOMC before us. What do we do? Aieeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!
Well, we do what we always do. We calm our minds, center ourselves, and look at charts. So here we go.
Let's start with the dollar. You all know I'm very bearish on the US Dollar right now. Here we have the AUD/USD, which looks poised to take a run at .73 or thereabouts. Good.
I've got wheat-on-the-brain these days. I think this is an important graph to follow. Getting back up to 650 should be a cakewalk, as it were.
And let's bury the triangle once and for all, shall we? It's dead. The pattern has been rendered moot. Begone, three-sided menace!
The real question, of course, is how far are equities going to go? My answer: it depends. More specifically, it depends on the index. Some indexes might have weeks or even months of bullish life left in them. Others might be within a day or two of shorting! Let's look at a few. The DIA could hit serious resistance at about 101.
In turn, the Dow itself has some pretty serious overhead resistance at 10,100-10250 (allow me to take this moment to back away from my "multi-month rally" comments; it all depends on how fast things move; if we had another day like today, it would be time to short indexes again!)
Take note of the retracements I've highlighted on the $TRAN. We bounced off the lower one today, and I'd say we've got an easy ride to the upper one, at around 4,150.
It sounds crazy, but I'm especially bullish on the financials. Just look at that tweezer bottom. In fact, I had an interesting screw-up today; I meant to buy $11,000 of MBI; I accidentally bought 11,000 shares instead. Whoops. I hope we don't get any suprirsing news before I get a chance to "right-size" that position tomorrow.
The $UTIL isn't terribly far away from being shortable again. I'd get interested around 415. If it blew past it, I'd get super interested at 460.
The EFA is one of those items which could have months of fighting higher before it ultimately exhausts itself.
Looking at tech stocks, they could either (a) go up a lot; or (b) go up really a lot; it depends on which resistance level stops them.
A different view into this same notion is afforded by the $COMPQ. As I sit here, I'd use 2,000 as a "get-out" point.
Ah, and OIH, our dear nemesis – – our friend and foe. Since this finally seems to have shaped up, we could get to $110 without much effort — maybe even a skosh higher.
And, more broadly, I'd say the commodities market are looking really exciting for short-term upside.
Just to hit on my financialy bullishness again, here's the KBW Bank Sector Index which I think could push into a hearty, sustained rally.
Let's take one last look at a major ETF – this time the SPY. The RSI and Bollingers are good and solid here; we could see the SPY at 110 without much difficulty at all – – if people get especially excited, 120 isn't going to be a problem.
I'll close by saying this……….I have a bulging treasure chest of symbols that will be incredibly, amazing, delicious shorts when the price is right. Some may take months to "ferment"; others, weeks; a few, maybe even days. I was short COH earlier today, and I covered it at a great profit; it blew over 20% higher, so thank goodness for nimbleness. But the fact is that if this sucker gets back to about $23, it will be delicious to short. That kind of price isn't far away.
So………thank you all for being here…….a big part of my success comes from listening to the wiser folks who frequent the board (or, like molecool, have their own superb blogs). I thank you. My family thanks you. And my bulging accounts thank you. Good night! And take pity on those who were caught short……….
