Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bold Enough to Call A Top? (by Andy Crowder)

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Well, I already made that mistake. 1.9% lower. Check out my post from last Tuesday.

But, 1.9% lower really isn’t that far. Especially if you consider all of the bearish indicators that currently reside on  a sentiment and technical basis.

I use very few indicators. I am a strong believer in the linear regression of time and price.  You know, mean-reversion,  bell curves, simple overbought/oversold indicators. Simple, logical, intellectual and more importantly mathematically sound indicators that are the first step towards long-term trading success. Emotions are nonexistent. Time and price determine my parameters.

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All it Takes is One Bad Trade

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I came across a great article on the one bad trade syndrome. Several months ago, Slopers were privy to a real-life blow-up in which a trader essentially risked all of his trading capital on essentially one trade(disregarded the importance of position-sizing). I want to make sure that I never make the same mistake. Currently, my positions are teetering on max pain (stop-loss). My outlook remains with the pullback scenario that I have mentioned repeatedly the past few weeks – short-term bearish.

Check out the article - All it Takes is One Bad Trade

Don’t Be a Hero When Trading Options

Options trading seems to create a “get rick quick mentality” that attracts the “speculative gamblers” out there. To me this approach seems short-sighted, unless that is your goal and you are willing to take the risk. I prefer to take the “long-term” approach that attempts to beat the market over an extended period of time. Admittingly, I “go for the gold” sometimes and place a highly speculative trade. But those are few and far between and I would never allocate a large portion of my portfolio to a trade like this. It is just too risky for my blood after what I have experienced as a trader. Take the loss and move on. Think in terms of probablities. Use a scientific approach. Losses are a cost of doing business. It is how your account compares to the benchmarks after a long-period of time that defines your success. Any Joe options trader can make a bundle on a trade. It is how Joe performs over the long-term that defines his success.

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The Rally That Never Stops

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What is there to say that I haven’t said already?

If you were not privy to the stats that I  provided last week by the wonderful sentiment analyst Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader.com here you go:

Starting around the 2nd week in January, stocks have had a consistent tendency to weaken.  Or at least not show much strength.  Especially technology.

I don’t want to hammer on this too much.  Seasonality is a tertiary indicator at best, and can easily be overwhelmed by fundamental developments, technical breakouts and changes in sentiment.

The performance of various sectors since the day honoring Martin Luther King, Jr. became an exchange holiday in 1998.  The performance of QQQ was positive only 1 out of 11 years into the end of the month.

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On the Eve of Options Expiration…..

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I am always amazed how large the opportunity to “make it big” factors into the great magnetism of the market. The belief that anyone, from any background can be successful and make tons of money has quite the allure. But, in all of this euphoria people neglect to think about all of those that failed before them. And believe me the failure rate is high. Yet, investors/traders continue to choose the most difficult of investments to trade – stocks. Stock-only traders are at a complete disadvantage because they have no way to trade the randomness of the market. They have a 50/50 chance of success for each and every trade.

Bottom line – stock investors/traders are truly at a disadvantage.

Again, stock investors only have two ways to make a profit: buy a stock or short a stock. And most retail investors are not willing to short a stock, so basically they are only able to profit in one direction – up.

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Up, Up and Away? Not If History Has a Say.

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The market rallied hard making it the 9 out of 11 tradings days with positive gains. SPY has made since 4.2% during that time, but over the past month SPY has made a staggering 8.7%. And as expected, now we are seeing sentiment change.

But, I am not completely sold on the rally yet.

Why? Well, other than the overbought to very overbought readings in most of the ETFs I follow and all of the reasons mentioned in my post yesterday, we are also entering into the weakest period of the month of January. Just look at the DIA chart below for percentage of times positive over the next five trading days.

courtesy of Sentimentrader.com (click to enlarge)

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