Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The weird weather has been on everyone’s radar lately, and it has been weird. But why? The narrative creators will tell you it is AGW climate change, because no matter what it is, it is caused by man-made global warming. But like everything else, the answer is more benign, but far more scary. It is the sun; and we have data that shows what happens when the sun does its thing. I will talk about the big macro in another post, but for today I want to talk about three aligning shorter term cycles.
+ The ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) 3-5 year cycle
+ The Atlantic Decadal Oscillator
+ The Pacific Multi-Decade Oscillator
The Junk Bond Market topped in 2011, Commodities, as well, the Real Estate Market Topped in 2014, the Stock Market topped in 2015, and now we are seeing gold, U.S. bonds, and the dollar starting to positively correlate.
It is time to revisit with Mr. Exeter. He created a risk pyramid, that shows how investors cascade down from high risk to no risk assets as aversion and default gains steam.
Let me explain:
The concept is beyond supply and demand, at some point the price gets to a point where there is not enough buyers at any price that makes sense to produce or serve, and for the world this has now become a structural problem, and will turn deflation into a depression. Capital owners are resisting lowering their rate of return at a slower rate than consumers ability to purchase their goods and services.
Since Tim is taking some time off, and we are in the holiday slumber, I am posting some non direct, market topics. Enjoy.
As the elites desperately try to centralize and homogenize us. Technology allows us to stay a step ahead. This is becoming ever clearer in the home. For rural communities it is now a reality, and increasingly so for the suburban family.
It all started with solar hot water, for the home and the pool. This technology is over 100 years old, and used quite a bit before utility gas replaced it. Now the systems are very space efficient and durable.