I’ve been kind of hung up on the price gap in oil at 73.25. Yesterday, as we had pushed close enough to that number for me to be satisfied, I did a post called “Close Enough“, where I specifically pointed to XOP and wrote “I suspect this one is going to suffer the quickest.” Here is XOP now, with an arrow marking the timestamp of yesterday’s post.
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I’ve been watching the gap in the long-term crude oil contract for a long time. The value is at $73.25. We got up to about $73, which is close enough for me.
Well, everything’s green again this morning (except, mercifully, for bonds). Crude oil has been particularly strong for many months now, and I wanted to point out an interesting little tidbit.
If you glance at the ETF symbol USO, which is a very popular instrument for trading crude oil, you will see its price gap is miles and miles away:
Hmmm. Things are looking less sanguine in bear-land. Although the SPY gap is still firmly intact, and has plenty of cushion left:
As you might guess, today (Monday) was pretty much the opposite of last Friday for me. Friday was awesome. Today sucked. But as a swing trader, I’m not going to cover all my positions willy-nilly. As I so often say, the individual stops need to take care of themselves. As such, I’ve retreated from 71 positions down to 61. Of those, 51 remain profitable, and the other 10 have small losses. Average of the winners is 3.27%, and the average of the losers is negative 0.26%.
This bounce could have more life to it (and, for me, more pain). Looking at the charts, it seems to be the key is the gap between last Wednesday and Thursday. Take a look below, and you’ll see an interesting correlation between the 100 day moving average and the Wed/Thurs price gap. It seems to me, that makes a sensible bounce target. (Side note: I took this snapshots about an hour before the close, so the price moves were even higher).