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Last Week’s Peek Behind the Policy Curtain

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Note: This article assumes the reader knows the reasons we are now bearish on the Semiconductor Equipment sector. NFTRH subscribers definitely do and NFTRH.com/Biiwii.com readers should as well. Readers who have been around a few years also know that we became bullish on the Semi’s in Q1 2013 from much the same reason, in reverse, we are becoming bearish now.

This article was originally and simply titled ‘Market Management’ as the opening segment from this week’s NFTRH 372. We then covered US and global stock markets and precious metals in detail, along with brief but ongoing negativity about commodities (but also what to look for regarding signs of change), a currency update and extensive market sentiment and indicator updates.

As noted recently, my trading had become problematic because I do not have the time, inclination or even the raw talent to day trade, which is what this market has seemed to demand lately. There is no better illustration of the reason why trading has been difficult than what happened on Tuesday through Friday as markets popped up to challenge the recovery highs, tanked hard, seemingly launching the bear view and then ramped again toward the highs on Friday (on a policy maker’s jawbone, what else?).

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Until Today

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Euro 50 Flips Draghi the Bird, S&P 500 Fails at a Key Parameter, Semi’s are Fundamentally Bearish and Gold Has a Sentiment Washout Within its Bear Market

Markets Had Been Obedient, Until Today

Despite Janet Yellen’s protests to the contrary, the 7 year long asset market bailout (ZIRP + QE’s 1, 2 & 3 with a side of Operation Twist) has served to further enrich formerly troubled asset holders and provide a handy wealth effect for regular 401k holders to boot.

It’s great as long as things stay so symmetrical that even a linear-thinking, professionally trained economist can understand it. Indeed, Mario Draghi has been implementing a ‘me too!’ QE plan in Europe in order to more or less ape the success that is the US bond market err, management program. Fed Funds interest rates at zero, pinning T bill yields to the mat and encouraging banks to borrow for free and lend at interest, Quantitative Easing in various forms sanitizing inflation signals and literally painting the macro backdrop as desired. It all seemed so easy, so unquestioned by the market.

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The Ping Pong Paradox

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Nearly five years ago, I wrote a post called Color and the Mania in this Valley (you might want to re-read it; I think it’s pretty good). In it I mentioned how, many years earlier, a company opened up adjacent to my start-up, Prophet:

Next door to us was a startup called DoDots. They appeared out of the blue and had $20,000,000 dropped into their laps for a product which – as far as I could tell – was absolutely useless. It needled me that someone could dream up an idea – – and, in my mind, a really lame idea – – and, without a single dollar of revenue, let alone profit, get a check for twenty million dollars to pursue their “dream.” I admit I was a little jealous at not having that kind of cash at my disposal, particularly since I had worked hard on a legitimate enterprise for years.

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Leading and Other Indicators: Time to Hike?

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According to the amalgamation of ‘Leading Indicators’ to the economy, it is time for a rate hike. Here is the graph of LI and Fed Funds, from Wisdom Tree’s post on the subject.

leading indicators

It is and has been also time to hike based on employment numbers. This was supposed to be the last thing to get squared away before normalization, wasn’t it? LI is thought to lead inflation in the economy, which has thus far been held in check by a global deflation that is devouring funny munny sprayed from global policy hoses.

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